US-Taliban Deal: Hope for Peace or Not?

After a long, bloody war both the US and the insurgent Taliban group of Afghanistan came to an agreement to establish peace in Afghanistan and, therefore, signed a peace deal on February 29, 2020, in Doha. The deal was signed by the US Special Envoy Zalmay Khalizad and Taliban Political Chief Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar.

The war started when the US claimed that the Taliban government of Afghanistan was protecting Osama Bin Laden, the main culprit of the 9/11 terror attack, and his terrorist organization Al Qaeda. Subsequently the US troops attacked Afghanistan and dismantled the Taliban government. In this ‘War on Terror’ millions of people lost their lives and innumerable amounts of properties were destroyed. The deal, at least theoretically, proposed to an end to this war. According to the deal, within the first 135 days of signing this treaty the US would reduce its forces to 8600 in this region, the Taliban would help the Government to establish peace in the country and the prisoners would also be exchanged between the Ashraf Ghani-led government and the Taliban within March 10 (However, the exchange is not yet possible). US President Donald Trump said that now it is the time for the other parties to destroy the terrorist groups in Afghanistan instead of the US troops. Taliban leader Baradar declared: “I hope that with the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan, the Afghanistan under an Islamic regime will take its relief and embark on a new prosperous life.” Although the Ashraf Ghani government didn’t take part in it, it remarked that the deal was ‘an important step in the peace process’ and Ghani himself said that his government is ready to negotiate with the Taliban for making peace.

The deal achieved global attention as almost all the neighbouring countries of Afghanistan including India, China and Pakistan appreciated it. China is particularly keen to establish peace in this region as its Belt and Road Initiative  project goes through Afghanistan and called for the ‘orderly and responsible’ withdrawal of foreign troops to prevent a security vacuum and prevent the terrorist groups. NATO and the  UN also welcomed this deal.

Despite its surface level success, according to experts, it wouldn’t be an easy task to establish peace in this region solely based on this deal as the internal political situation of Afghanistan is in immense turmoil. In the last Presidential Elections, the present President Ashraf Ghani won only with a marginal lead. But his nearest political rival Abdullah Abdullah didn’t support his win and proposed to form a parallel government. Though the Ghani government was able to secure international recognition, this kind of turmoil is posing a threat to the fragile democracy of this war-torn country. While the leaders are engaged in this internal quarrel an external threat may come from the Taliban. According to Seth Jones, a counter terrorism expart, Taliban didn’t fight for 18 years only to agree with the situation where they are serving in the Afghan government led by Ghani. They would go for something more, i.e., occupation of power. The Taliban often describes the present government as a ‘puppet’ of the Western powers and most of the major Taliban leaders say that they have metamorphosed since their harsh rule of the 1990s. This in a way authenticates the opinion that the Taliban is willing to come into power. A BBC survey shows that there has been a sharp increase in power of the Taliban in the recent years over various regions of  Afghanistan. Almost in 70% of the territory, there is either a strong presence of the Taliban or it is under Taliban control. In many places they have completely demolished the US troops. This increasing power of the Taliban creates fear among the women activists and the human right activists of the country, because the Taliban is by nature considered to be a  fundamentalist group and is intolerant towards anything that doesn’t fit with its own ideology, for instance, empowerment of women.. Zarifar Ghafari, Mayor of Maidan Shahr remarked, “The Taliban is still a group of terrorists. Giving them a chance to come back is not good news. I hope the international community will protect the future as well as social, economical and political progress in Afghanistan. As a woman, I am looking at a dark future with the Taliban in power.” Remembering the oppression of women during the Taliban regime, another social activist Zahra Husseini described the day of signing the deal as a ‘dark day’. They contend that another Taliban rule would destroy  the fabric of their society even more.

The relation between the present government and the Taliban group didn’t improve after the  treaty as no party could come to a mutual agreement regarding the prisoners’ exchange. In the treaty the deadline for this exchange was fixed as March 10, 2020 but  the issue remains unsolved, till date.  In the meantime, the US troops broke the conditions of the treaty and did a drone attack over a group of Taliban insurgents contending  that they had  violated the terms and conditions of the treaty. This resumed attack clearly threatens the fate of peace in this region and proves that though each party apparently  cherished the proposals of peace for this region on the ‘treaty-table’, but de facto they are not willing to work on iit. While President Trump is trying to use the treaty as an instrument to impress the US citizens in an election year, the Taliban is utilizing this treaty to justify their programme and ideology and to increase their significance in the governmental politics of Afghanistan. No doubt, this instrumental use of it may violate its actual purpose. Even if the US troops leave Afghanistan within the proposed date, it would not be easy for the Afghans themselves to establish peace, because then the Taliban may go for usurping governmental power and  this may result in a massive turmoil and civil war that would further invite international interference. Trump has already declared, “If bad things happen, we’ll go back with a force like no one ever seen.” This statement raises the perennial  question whether this mammoth force will be able to establish peace or not. Can peace be established with force?

Moreover, as it has been mentioned earlier that China too has its own interests in this peace process. First, its BRI project goes through Afghanistan. Secondly, some scholars argue that increasing power of  the Taliban  in Afghanistan may further escalate unrest in the Uyghur region of China. Therefore, for the sake of its own national interests, China may not encourage  further unrest in this region.

Amidst these various internal and external threats, the present situation in Afghanistan  is unquestionably very grave. After a bloody war of 18 years it is time to attain peace and  freedom. Ideally  in order to attain this, any further war shouldn’t be fought, any further human rights shouldn’t be violated, women shouldn’t be oppressed, however, the gap between the ideal and real continues to be considerable. Only time will  tell whether a peaceful, self-governing Afghanistan is a possibility.

Sourav Chakraborty

Intern, AGA