The Red Dragon in the Continent of Contrasts: China’s Inevitable Rise in Asia

Asia as a continent finds itself standing out from the rest of the world in the 21^st century. Since the turn of the 18th century, most of the continent has been under various occupying powers ranging from the all-encompassing British Empire to the United States of America. Today Asia is home to a staggering five (six if the ambiguity of Israel is deemed true) nuclear weapon states and three of the world’s four military superpowers. Asia also has the largest population and the highest GDP of all the continents in the world. Asia is so diverse that it is aptly called the ‘Continent of Contrasts’ and amongst all the names that are often included by academics, researchers, and bureaucrats; one name always seems to find a recurrence. That nation is China.

There are many reasons why the USA and its Western allies deem China as a major threat to the world as it exists today. From ideological differences to the fear of falling into a Thucydides Trap, China has been viewed with great skepticism by its rivals and as an alternative to the US hegemony which has existed since the end of the Cold War by its allies. However, China’s first call of action is hardly to dismantle the existing status quo of power dynamics but rather to establish its hegemony in Asia which finds the strongest opposition from two of its immediate neighbors, India, and Japan. India which itself is vying for hegemony in Asia, finds itself in a cat-and-mouse game with China, as both try to dwarf each other’s presence and influence in the continent. China, for a long time, had enjoyed almost no major competition in Asia, but with the rise of India in the 21^st century, it is time for China, now more than ever to re-evaluate its policies and investments in Asia to counter the rising Indian threat.

China and Central Asia

China’s influence in Asia is not something that can be willfully ignored. Multiple middle powers and developing countries have seen China’s investment in their respective regions as well as the larger Chinese initiatives which exist to control and manage trade in Asia. Most of China’s major investments can be seen in Central Asia via organizations such as the Shanghai Co-operation Group (SCO) and the C+C5 (China + Central Asia) where China has been a key player and partner in the trade policies of these Central Asian countries as they try to establish what many call China’s ‘New Silk Route’. China which seeks to establish peace in East Turkistan and import oil, gold, and other minerals from Central Asia has taken a major interest in the development of the region and established pipelines under Xi Jinping’s landmark Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Chinese oil companies continue to invest in major Kazakh oil depots and China also built pipelines with Kazakhstan to import their oil. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have also been contracted with natural gas pipelines from their countries to China. China also used the SCO to fund, finance, and support its Central Asian neighbors to ensure that they may not be influenced by actors such as India and Russia which would be a threat to their ambitions as a stable world power. China’s need for energy has grown since the 1990s. Its daily consumption of oil saw a rise from 4.2 million barrels in 1998 to 13.5 million barrels in 2018. Its consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by nearly 190 percent from 2020 to 2050. Central Asia which has an abundance of resources to support China’s mammoth needs benefits from the money China invests in its infrastructure and sharing of technology. China has also expanded its security in the region and wishes to continue its economic presence in the region. However, all is not well for China in the region as pre-Covid protests continued to make the news over the Chinese treatment of people in Xinjiang. Governments in the region also find support from India and Russia who are willing to be alternatives to the Chinese monopoly in the region. China for now seems to have allCentral Asia as its close partner but with the changing tides and power dynamics, China needs to ensure that its monopoly remains unchallenged. This would mean more investments, more sharing of resources, and perhaps security in the form of the superior Chinese military.

China in East Asia

China’s East is perhaps one of the most important diplomatic regions for China as it struggles to establish itself and its hegemony in the region. This is of course attributed to the presence of two US allies in the form of Japan and South Korea, North Korea which is cut off from most of the world, and the disputed Chinese regions of Taiwan and Hong Kong which China sees as integral in its One China Policy. While Taiwan, Korea, and Japan enjoy the cheap assembly cost of their products in China, these nations have failed to see eye to eye on multiple occasions and issues. China for East Asia serves as a hub for cheap labor, inexpensive assembly costs, and raw products. However, China has failed to establish its hegemony in the region and its mere military strength means very little to East Asian countries. North Korea which is somewhat isolated from the rest of the world, is perhaps the only region where Chinese influence has a certain amount of say as China has been working to put a hold on North Korea’s nuclear programs. China since the 1990s has heavily depended on East Asia for its economic growth, something which has gone down considerably today. Chinese aggression in East Asia in the 2010s has not done China much favor as they struggle to establish themselves culturally and economically in the region. While South Korea and China have recently solved multiple disputes and have lifted sanctions on each other to allow economic trade to resume. However, China needs to navigate itself out of multiple diplomatic red tapes as its relationship with Japan is reaching one of its lowest in recent history and China has been aggressively pulling itself toward Taiwan to annex the region as a part of its administrative territory.

China in South Asia

For China it is very important that it maintains a certain superiority in the South Asian region as it aims to counter the presence of India as a ‘big brother’ in the region. India’s unfavorable relations with Pakistan, allows China to find an all-weather ally in the South Asian region. Alternatively, China has invested more than 150 billion dollars in the South Asian region, investing in India’s neighborhood which includes Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives for whom China serves as the largest overseas investor. Countries like Bangladesh and Afghanistan have also been benefiting in recent years with massive Chinese investments. China begins as a military investor in these regions and slowly becomes a credit lender to these regions. Upon unavailability to pay back loans or interests, China starts investing in hard infrastructure which mostly is in the form of roads, ports, and other transportation availabilities. To promote its BRI initiative, China had also started investing the Yuan in the stock markets in Karachi and Dhaka. Bangladesh which is a rising economic player in South Asia while not reliant on Chinese credit or aid, welcomes its investments and economic corridors. However, this is not enough to contain Indian presence in the region. India which follows the Gujral Doctrine in the region, which simply states that India extends help in its neighborhood without the expectations of anything back from these nations have helped India to retain on top in its neighborhood as it continues to rival Chinese investments in the region.

China in Southeast Asia

China which was initially apprehensive of the region and the ASEAN regionalism in the 90s started openly engaging with the ASEAN region becoming a full dialogue partner in the process. China started investing heavily in the region to establish what it calls ‘regional peace’ to stabilize its economy and access the rich and unified markets that ASEAN has to offer. ASEAN and China in the 21^st century continued to keep growing as partners, having over almost 46 areas of key co-operation which includes more than 10 ministry level dialogues. For China, ASEAN means a route to increased maritime trade and a maritime trade corridor by which Chinese ships may establish a somewhat hegemony in the maritime regions. China has over the years continued to donate to ASEAN as they continue to be affected by various natural disasters which primarily are earthquakes and tsunamis. China is also establishing itself as a major security partner in the region for the three Mekong countries. The ASEAN region which has traditionally been dominated by US influence has been seeing a major shift in relations as more ASEAN nations look to favor China and Chinese establishments and investments in their region. In Southeast Asia, China has built itself as a power to not be trifled with as it continues to try to dominate the economic sphere and perhaps even encroach towards the military and security aspect that ASEAN nations have to offer.

China and West Asia

In 1977 China established four principles for the growth of China from the shell that it was in. One of the greatest investments came from the MENA nations and particularly the region of West Asia. The dependency of oil and the oil boom positioned West Asian nations as potential economic giants allowing for China and the region to mutually benefit from Chinese cheap labor for West Asia and oil for the major Chinese factories and production houses in the entire region. Relations kept growing from there. The US which was seen as an aggressive player in the region, was more welcoming to China and its labor. This led to multiple dialogues and co-operations being signed between both the regions. Today China is the largest investor of the MENA region and their anti-American sentiments have allowed both China and the region to keep growing strongly. Chinese soft power is also slowly fining itself becoming a part of West Asia as the region continues to keep growing and Chinese economy rapidly keeps growing. Furthermore, the BRI which has been a brainchild of China for years has also seen great support in the MENA region which is more than willing to establish larger economic and trade links with China as an alternative to the West. China has grown to pick up the remains that the US left behind after its multiple interventions and other forms of investments. Chinese investments continue to dominate and keep growing in the region.

Conclusion

The rise of Asia is undeniable, and with it so is the rise of China. China has since the 1970s held true to its politburo ambitions and is a great power of the world. Very few nations could oppose China and even fewer would want to. The Chinese economic and debt cycle model has potentially made it the most important player in Asia and that profile keeps rising. However, it is not all beds and roses for the Chinese hegemonic rise. Apart from the internal conflict it was resolve in the West and South of its administrative territories, China must also counter Japan and India, its biggest rivals in the region. As China seeks to continue to grow, these nations hinder China’s path. It is however not just India and Japan that China must look out for. The Western US led alliance has now more than ever decided to increase its presence in the Pacific Ocean Region. The establishment of the Quadrilateral Dialogue as well as the I2U2 as alternatives to the Chinese hegemonic structure is something China must be cautious about. Currently the increasing tensions with Taiwan has also not helped Chinese confidence building with its other partners who have in recent years felt the overreaching presence of China in their affairs. However, all the negatives aside, China’s growth in Asia has been immense and for its rivals to counter Chinese influence, they must be prepared to offer better economic sustainability and security that China does now. As China keeps growing, the West grows restless on how to contain the red dragon.

References

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Elborzi, A. (2022, January 25). Built on Power: Manifestations of China’s Presence in West Asia. SOAS China Institute. https://blogs.soas.ac.uk/china-institute/2022/01/25/built-on-power-manifestations-of-chinas-presence-in-west-asia/

Chatterji, R. (2021, April 15). China’s Relationship with ASEAN: An Explainer. ORF. https://www.orfonline.org/research/china-relationship-asean-explainer/

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Bader, J. A. (2005, September 6). China’s Role in East Asia: Now and the Future. Brookings; Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/on-the-record/chinas-role-in-east-asia-now-and-the-future/

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DebdootBasu Ray

Intern, Asia in Global Affairs

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