THE KULBHUSHAN VERDICT AND THE GLOBAL RESPONSE

Geopolitics is a significant aspect of international relations. Be it Chanakya’s Mandala Theory, or Sun Tzu’s psychological warfare, geostrategic proximity has always been a topic of dispute between nations. Post-colonial South Asia witnessed the formation of two nation-states based on the religious affiliation of the populace who eventually became bête-noir. While India became a secular republic, Pakistan embraced Islam as its state religion. Relations between India and Pakistan have been tumultuous from the very beginning. The nations witnessed an intense war-like situation in 1948, wars in 1965 and 1971, and a border incursion in 1999 in Kargil—all within a span of 71 years. In fact, the 1971 war witnessed the formation of Bangladesh, ‘vivisected’ from Pakistan. Espionage has historically been a key component of the security affairs of both the nations and Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) are the official espionage wings of India and Pakistan respectively. Post- Cold War era witnessed a rise in their prominence with the ISI playing a dominant role in shaping the military and diplomatic policy-making machinery of Pakistan.

Against this particular relational backdrop, we need to analyze the present fiasco that has engaged both the nations in a blame-game, revolving round the arrest of Kulbhusan Jadhav—an ex Indian Naval commander, in Pakistan. India broached the matter in the International Court of Justice where she talked about how Pakistan had consistently denied consular access to Jadhav in clear violation of the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations, 1963. It also highlighted how the proceedings held against him at a Pakistani military tribunal that culminated in a death sentence, was also in clear violation of the UN Human Rights Convention and the Geneva Convention. Surprisingly during the proceedings at ICJ, Harish Salve, the Indian attorney, brought up the precedent of the treatment meted out to Ajmal Kasab. This is surprising because Kasab was a terrorist operating on Indian soils, in complete violation of Indian laws, charged with multiple homicides, and numerous other offences, as documented by the famous 1000-page charge sheet filed by the-then Mumbai police commissioner, Rakesh Maria. However, what might be significant in this context is the treatment meted out to Kasab. His trial at Indian civil courts, at the Bombay High Court and the Supreme Court throw light on the Indian procedures which were starkly different from the Kulbhushan case where Pakistan did not adhere to any of these procedures.

Pakistan has received flak internationally for this and similar other human rights omissions. In recent times, for instance, the Imran Khan administration has faced serious pressure from its US ally to take a cogent stand against terror as Trump has raised questions on Pakistan’s commitment to combat terror. This has brought up serious issues thus creating ripples in Pakistani diplomatic circles. Though the arrest of Hafiz Saeed by the Lahore authorities happened immediately after Trump’s rebuttal, it can be dubbed as an eyewash. Moreover, the resounding verdict also relays the safe playing that China had resorted to, with the Chinese representative at the ICJ providing an affirmation to the majority ruling.

China’s decision to throw its diplomatic weight behind Pakistan is however no surprise. The China-Pakistan axis has historically acted as a counterfoil to India’s proactive role in South Asian affairs in particular and international affairs in general. Chinese military officials have been quite vocal about the role of Pakistan. A Chinese General Xiong Guangkai had mentionably commented, “China is Pakistan’s Israel.” The logic of calling Pakistan ‘China’s Israel’ is interesting from two aspects. Firstly, China’s support of Pakistan is being equated with US rapport with Israel, which is outwardly harmonious, but, actually very selective. The second is with reference to the relation between India and Israel. Israel has sought to replace Russia as India’s largest weapons dealer. The China-Pakistan Axis, as has been mentioned by Andrew Small, notes significant sharing of technology. Pakistan’s nuclear programme indeed has been supported in a very clandestine manner, by Chinese nuclear scientists, and there has been significant sharing of US weapon designs supplied to Pakistan during and after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, as has often been claimed by various sources.

Speaking of the Kulbhusan Jadav debacle, one might note that similar treatment was meted out to Sarbjit Singh, who was denied rights and eventually killed in Pakistan custody. Politically, the Opposition highlights his death as a failure by the United Progressive Alliance (UPA). It should also be noted how the public sentiment works in this respect. Populism has been an essential part of the politics of the Subcontinent. It’s undeniable that the popularization of the Surgical Strike in Kashmir, as well as the Balakot airstrikes, greatly fuelled the position of the BJP, thus significantly affecting its fortune at the National Elections. Similarly, Imran Khan’s efforts at upholding Pakistani law at the behest of global pressure have been well received by his people. Moreover, his recent brutal admission of Pakistan’s impoverished economy by choosing to travel on a passenger aircraft to meet the US President, and of his ‘aversion’ to nuclear warfare have quite strengthened his position in the international sphere.

India’s ‘decisive win’ at the ICJ however needs to be understood with reference to a fresh emergence of US interest in and engagement with South Asian affairs to which Pakistan also hints at. USA, under the protectionist regime of Trump, apparently wants to keep itself isolated, but in its bid to preserve its position as the ‘missionary’ world power, it is softly re-asserting itself. Its strong response against Iran stands as a testament to its global influence. The current international geo-politics however does not indicate dominance of any one super power. In fact, the Kulbhusan Jadav verdict symbolizes a strong UN perspective in general and the Geneva Convention in particular. A global similitude of interests against Pakistan has surely forced its hand, and has veritably affected its nature of conduct. India, indeed wields the upper hand now. Only time will tell how long this stand-off continues.

Raunak Bhattacharjee

Intern

AGA

The opinions expressed in the article belong to the author and do not reflect the position of AGA.