The Geometric Progression of Terror

President Trump is expected to announce soon that the United States and its partners have reclaimed the last pocket of territory in Syria, controlled by the Islamic State, bringing a formal end to the ‘Caliphate’ that was announced in 2014.[1]The announcementis based on the fact that in Syria and Iraq, where the Islamic State had their bases and controlled vast stretches of territory, there remain under their control only small conurbations that are destined to surrender in the near future. Yet, like the mythical phoenix that regenerates from its ashes, there are indications that for the Islamic Statethis is a just period of ‘transition, adaptation and consolidation’ and they remain active in remote areas of Iraq, undermining government authority and creating an atmosphere of lawlessness.[2]They also continue to have access to weapons and their leader Abu Bakr al –Baghdadi has eluded being captured or killed.

Regrouping therefore remains a very real possibility and there are reports that this hasbegun along the Afghan-Tajik border, in areas like Badakhshan, raising the specter of infiltration into the three Central Asian states bordering Afghanistan — Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.[3] While reports remain limited to certain areas, this regrouping and the return of trained militants from Syria would have implications for a much wider region spreading across South and Central Asia.

At its height the Islamic State had controlled a taxable population of seven to eight million, oilfields, refineries, vast stores of grain, channels of connectivity and vast stockpiles of arms and ammunition. Formed out of a breakaway faction of the Al Qaida it achieved what its predecessor had only talked about accomplishing in the future.[4] So while it is today in sharp decline there remain lingering threats of groups of highly skilled commanders who have developed their expertise through a decade of ferocious warfare. Islamic State Commanders would have foreseen the loss of territorial control in the face of massive airpower of the US and Russian led forces. And just like its forerunner, the Al Qaida in Iraq, who retreated to the deserts of western Iraq to wait for new opportunities that came with the civil war in Syria, they too will wait for another opportunity. The fact that after the loss of Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria they did not fight to the last man but retreated, determined to save at least some of their combat strength, is possibly vindication of the fact.

The question is where would they re-emerge? A second resurrection in the Middle East is unlikely as regional and international forces will be vigilant. The alternative is for the Commanders to travel to places where there is chaos due to civil war and non-existent states in Yemen, Libya and Afghanistan. There are reports that Islamic State fighters have been identified as part of the anti-Houthi forces in southern Yemen.[5]And as the United States begins dialogues for a complete withdrawal from Afghanistan and negotiates with the Taliban, foretelling a renewed period of uncertainty, their reemergence not just along the Afghan border,but also as part of extremist groups in the entire region,appears as a distinct possibility. What is possibly even more problematic is the availability of skilled militants who will be willing to train a generation of disaffected local youth.

Adil Ahmad Dar, the Pulwama suicide bombar was trained by Ghazi Rasheed an IED expert and Afghan war veteran who himself had been trained by the Taliban. Ghazi Rasheed had returned to POK after fighting NATO forces in the KhybarPakhtunkhwaand was a sought after extremist trainer. The fact that the encounter in which he was killed was a prolonged one and claimed the lives of four army personnel including a major is indicative of the level of preparedness of the group. And as the number of these skilled Commanders will increase as a modicum of control is established in Syria.

Also the ideological attraction of what the Islamic State had preached and continues to propagate through the social media remains significant. In 2015 it had attracted thirty thousand people from over eighty countries and used its online magazines to provide theological justifications and a rationale for their actions. In Southeast Asia, individuals influenced by IS ideology have carried out terrorist operations such as the armed conflict in Marawi(Philippines) in 2017, the suicide bombings in Indonesia in 2018, and the church bombing in Jolo (Philippines) this year – all executed in the name of ‘Jihād and Khilāfah’.[6]

Elimination of territorial control may therefore not be enough. Defined in terms of operational matrix, the ‘neutralization’ of extremist groups translates to immediate decline of civilian deaths, suicide attacks and roadside bombings. But for the translation of this into sustainable political advantage deep rooted sentiments underlying regional dynamics need to be addressed. And given the fact that the geometric progression of terror is a global problem the possibility of a Global Compact on Terror on the lines of the recently concluded Global Compact on Migration may be worth considering.

Anita Sengupta

10th March 2019

References

[1] “After the Caliphate: Has the IS Been Defeated?” BBC News 7 February 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45547595

[2] “After the Caliphate: Has the IS Been Defeated?” BBC News 7 February 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45547595

[3] Vladimir Rozanskij “Defeated in the Middle East ISIS Strengthens in Central Asia” AsiaNews.it 8 March 2018 http://asianews.it/news-en/Defeated-in-the-Middle-East,-Isis-strengthens-in-Central-Asia-44579.html

[4]How the Islamic State Rose, Fell and Could Rise Again in the Maghreb, International Crisis Group, Middle East and North Africa Report No 178, 24 July 2017

[5] Patrick Cockburn, “Preview 2018, After a String of Defeats in Iraq and Syria what 2018 means for Isis”, Independent, 1 January 2018,  https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-defeat-syria-latest-iraq-2018-survive-a8107891.html

[6] “Assessment Of Islamic State Ideological Threat – Analysis” March 4, 2019http://www.eurasiareview.com/04032019-assessment-of-islamic-state-ideological-threat-analysis/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+eurasiareview%2FVsnE+%28Eurasia+Review%29