The AUKUS and the Quad: A Tryst with Destiny

The first in-person summit of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or the Quad, had almost coincided with the announcement of a new trilateral security partnership between Australia, the U.K. and the U.S. (AUKUS), which is much more than a mere coincidence. However, while the move to create the AUKUS itself has given rise to a lot of controversies, it is beyond doubt that with Australia receiving a host of nuclear-powered submarines, it will significantly enhance its nuclear deterrence capabilities against China, while further acknowledging the shift of the global strategic rivalry from the North Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific. France, though, has been significantly irked at the loss of its prospect for supplying diesel-powered submarines to Australia in turn, which even led to a nascent diplomatic fallout between the former and the AUKUS partners themselves. New Zealand has also refused to allow the entry of Australian nuclear-powered submarines at its ports, as a part of a ban on nuclear-powered vessels, which dates back to 1985, despite being a part of the ‘Five Eyes’ partnership. Some commentators have also pointed out that such a development runs counter to the objectives and core principles, as set out in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), of which Australia itself has always been a strong adherent.

In this respect, India’s formal response with regards to the formation of this new grouping, came amidst a special media briefing, in which the Foreign Secretary Harsh Shringla clearly iterated the point that the AUKUS does not bear any relevance to the Quad, while not affecting the latter’s functioning in any conceivable way. However, some skeptics in the Indian strategic circle, have raised a complaint concerning the AUKUS to be an exclusive club, which has left two Quad members out of its ambit.

However, judging from a pragmatic standpoint, the formation of the AUKUS holds significance for the Quad for a number of reasons namely-

Firstly, it must be taken note of that none of the leaders of the three countries have mentioned any specific nation, while formally announcing their pact. However, nobody can hide the fact that it is an active measure to counter Beijing’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific, which is the new theatre of a geopolitical contest in an emerging but as of yet an amorphous global order. It is here that many commentators have raised their apprehensions that the AUKUS would inevitably diminish the importance as attached to the Quad in the strategic geography of the Indo-Pacific. However, these concerns are more theoretical than practical because it is inherently contradictory to view the AUKUS as a counter to the Quad, owing to the very nature and scope of these two groupings. Both of them share a common vision for the Indo-Pacific, which respects freedom of navigation and the rule of law. Thus, while using different instruments, the overarching objective of both the groupings is to eventually overpower and diminish China’s growing belligerence in the region. We can also see that the three leaders, themselves, highlighted the importance of their ongoing partnerships with the Quad, ASEAN and other Indo-Pacific partners like France at the said announcement as well.

Secondly, we can see that recently there has been a boom concerning the sheer magnitude of mini-lateral partnerships that has come up in the Indo-Pacific (Australia-India-Japan, India-Japan-U.S., Australia-India-Indonesia, Australia-France-India, India-Italy-Japan for instance), with each of them complimenting the other with a shared sense of purpose. However, these partnerships whilst involving one or two Quad countries, have also expanded the matrix of the Indo-Pacific strategic zone, by involving one or two non-Quad members as well. They have also transcended the boundaries of a political and diplomatic partnership as well by undertaking joint military exercises, whilst augmenting interoperability in order to respond to a host of contingencies that might arise in the future. AUKUS, thus, adds a strong military component to this arrangement only, while helping to build up a larger political and strategic consensus as well. Thus, India’s strategic community need not be apprehensive of the AUKUS, with New Delhi itself, being a part of many such mini-laterals in the Indo-Pacific, which are witnessing an enormous churning beyond the confines of maritime security alone.

In this respect, the Philippines was instrumental in providing one of the most substantive responses as to how the AUKUS may play a seminal role in rectifying regional strategic imbalances. In a statement given by the Philippine foreign secretary Teodoro L. Locsin Jr., he highlighted the imbalance of forces, which are available to the ASEAN member states, with the main balancer itself residing half a world away. Thus, judging from this standpoint, a near abroad ally’s ability to project power, would essentially help to restore rather than destabilize the regional balance. However, other ASEAN nations seem to harbor a mixed response with relation to the AUKUS, as in Malaysia, which had decided to send its defence minister to China in order to understand the latter’s reaction concerning the alliance. This move is in stark contrast to the problems faced by Malaysia and many of its South China Sea counterparts, who keep raising complaints about multiple breaches of their air and naval spaces by Beijing. Malaysia, in turn, also boasts of a close tie with Australia, while recently upgrading its relationship with the latter to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, which renders its reaction to the AUKUS quite confusing.

Lastly, the AUKUS also constitutes a welcome development, as it significantly enhances the capability augmentation of one of India’s closest strategic partners, with whom it has recently started a 2+2 ministerial dialogue. It must also be taken note of that the U.K. was the only country, which had remained institutionally aloof from the various U.S.-led initiatives aimed at countering China’s assertiveness. Thus, the creation of the AUKUS must also be interpreted as Biden’s attempt at persuading America’s most loyal ally to exert its full diplomatic and military influence in order to contain China, in the process relocating post-Brexit London to the Indo-Pacific chessboard. It must also be taken note of that following the abrupt withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, Washington’s allies have been raising doubts about the latter’s commitments towards its enduring partnerships. Thus, by creating the AUKUS, the U.S. has been instrumental in sending a strong signal with regards to its commitments towards the Indo-Pacific, by investing in capacity-building of its allies whilst sharing sensitive and strategic technologies.

In conclusion, we can say that before accusing the AUKUS to be constitutive of an ‘invisible fence’ around the U.S. and its treaty partners so to say, we must remember that India has never been comfortable in engaging with any kind of treaty-level arrangement that requires military commitment, for which the Quad has not assumed the position of an ‘Asian NATO’ as of now. India, itself, needs to acquire an enhanced military capability, so as to achieve its coveted ‘strategic autonomy’, and a strong partnership with the Anglosphere can surely pave the way for this urgent reckoning. Just as the Anglo-American move has helped Australia to augment its nuclear arsenal, this must also be viewed as a strategic opening for India, whereby, the latter can improve its own stealth underwater capability in the long run. 

Debayan Ghatak, 

Intern, Asia in Global Affairs

References

• Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, “Does AUKUS Augment or Diminish the Quad?”, The Diplomat, September 23, 2021, https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/does-aukus-augment-or-diminish-the-quad/

• Vinay Kaura, “AUKUS is no counter to Quad, both have common vision of Indo-Pacific region”, The Economic Times, September 25, 2021, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/view-aukus-is-no-counter-to-quad-both-have-common-vision-of-indo-pacific-region/articleshow/86501138.cms