Taking Stock of the International Solar Alliance and its Geopolitical Implications

In the present day academic discourse relating to ‘energy security’, we can notice that a discernible shift is taking place, which can also be dubbed as ‘energy transition’, with its key objective being that of ensuring a ‘clean’ and ‘affordable source’ of energy to the masses. This marked trend can in turn, ultimately help in realizing the goal of ‘sustainable security’. However, like the erstwhile energy transitions, the present move as geared towards the augmentation of Renewable Energy (RE), can be seen to engender its own geopolitical fallout, alongside the espousal of ‘solar energy’ as a pivotal constituent of the quintessential ‘RE dialogue process’. It must also be remembered in the same breadth that the prices of both oil and natural gas, which keeps fluctuating in the international market, alongside the fear of widespread environmental degradation as associated with these conventional sources of energy, is also spurring this energy transition to a significant extent.

It must be pointed out that solar energy, in particular, is receiving a heightened degree of importance from both the policy makers and scientists alike due to its widespread ‘availability’ alongside its inherent ‘affordability’. It is in this context that one must note the emergence of the International Solar Alliance (ISA), which is a coalition of solar resource-rich countries, with their spatial location being completely or partly between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn, which have access to uninterrupted sun rays, so as to augment the standard of living of their respective local populations. Till date, 89 countries have signed the ISA’s Framework Agreement, with 72 of them having deposited their instruments of ratification in this respect.

It was launched by the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi alongside his French counterpart President Francois Hollande in November 2015, while the 21^st session of the United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP-21) was ongoing in Paris. The moot aim of the alliance was to promote the usage of solar energy in 121 member states, alongside the mobilization of over $1 trillion of investment, as geared towards the deployment of solar energy at affordable prices. It bears the distinction of being the first inter-government organization to be headquartered in Gurugram, India and it must be noted that in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, the ISA has taken upon itself, the task of providing round the clock electricity to member states, so as to power their cold storages that store vaccines.

The ISA essentially consists of an Assembly, Secretariat alongside the presence of several committees. It must be noted that the Assembly of this alliance serves the purpose of a decision-making body, with the Secretariat being responsible for overseeing its variegated operations and functioning in its stead. The body itself is essentially funded through the voluntary contributions as made available by its members themselves and various partner countries, alongside the UN and the burgeoning global private sector. In terms of revenue generation, the alliance depends upon the specific activities which get the approval of its Assembly. It must be pointed out that the founding conference of this alliance was essentially co-hosted by Modi and the present French President Emmanuel Macron in New Delhi on 11^th March, 2018, which witnessed the participation of 21 heads of states besides the French President, 6 vice presidents and deputy prime ministers, alongside the presence of 19 ministers, in the capacity of heads of delegations.

While understanding the geopolitical significance of the ISA, three considerations must especially be harped upon namely-

Firstly, solar energy can be harnessed from nature without incurring any cost whatsoever, which is complemented by its abundant availability. This is in marked contrast to oil and gas-based energy, which are spatially dispersed in specific parts of the world for instance West Asia, some select locales of North Africa, alongside Eurasia and the United States. This spatial distribution was a cause of major cause of disquiet for ‘energy-dependent states’, which had to import these energies in bulk quantities from distant locales, in the process incurring exorbitant expenses.

This seminal fact created most of the geopolitical conflicts of the 20^th century, with scholars focusing upon energy security, arguing that the root causes of both the First and the Second World Wars, alongside the longstanding Cold War can be traced to  the demand for oil and gas, which in turn resulted in the espousal of certain geopolitical doctrines like the Carter Doctrine (which was enunciated by Washington in the 1980s to guarantee energy resources from West Asia), alongside the Iran-Iraq war as well. It must be pointed out that post-1991, the Clinton administration also made recourse to the usage of the same phrases, to maintain its preponderance over the energy rich Caspian Sea. In this gloomy context, the ISA is harping upon the aspect of ‘technology transfer’ and ‘storage of solar energy’, with financial assistance being extended to member countries (The ISA has signed an agreement with the African Development Bank in this instance), in the process reinforcing the notion of ‘Global South’. Several proposed programmes with regards to ‘project planning’ and ‘project layout’ can also be seen on the ISA’s website in this respect.

Secondly, it can be noted that the specter of rampant radicalization as observable in different parts of the world, has to do with the ‘energy geopolitics’, as observable in various locales. For instance, the Boko Haram terrorist group of Nigeria, the religious extremists as located in Russia’s North Caucasus region alongside a plethora of Caspian states, the ISIS in West Asia are some good specimens, to drive home the fact, as to how religious extremists make deft use of oil money to gain political expediency.

Some studies also point to the gloomy picture, as to how the political elites in the oil producing states, use the radical extremist groups, in ‘direct’ and ‘indirect’ ways, to gain political mileage and thereby, the former steers clear of undertaking any tough measures, so as to reprimand these nefarious forces. Some of them are gripped with the fear that if they withdrew support from these Islamist groups, they will face local revolt. Solar energy on the other hand, comes with the prospect of breaking the monopoly of these West Asian states in particular, in the process alleviating energy dependence from a few parts of the world, whilst making sure that lesser monetary resources is made available to these radicals.

Thirdly, scholars have pointed out that the moot point of the ISA is that it helps in providing ‘equitable representation’ to some states such as Fiji and South Sudan, alongside the presence of advanced economies like Australia and France, thus, marking a gainful leap towards the augmentation of ‘global equity’. It must be especially pointed out that it was two major energy consuming countries, one from the Global North, which is France and the other from the Global South, which is India, which took the lead in the establishment of the ISA itself. It was in this context that Prime Minister Modi, while delivering his address to the first conference of the alliance, harped upon the ISA, being a major step towards the augmentation of ‘One World, One Sun and One Grid’, alongside exhuming optimism that the former will become the ‘alternative OPEC’. This latter view, in particular, can be substantiated from the fact that Saudi Arabia, which has a monopoly over energy production, has joined the ISA.

Such a development also portends the fact that the ISA, in the coming years, will bear the potential of becoming a major platform, as geared towards the production and distribution of energy resources, on an equitable basis. In this respect, France is using its diplomatic leverage to push forward ISA’s goals in several multilateral bodies, alongside spurring several private sector initiatives like the Syndicat des Energies Renouvelables (SER), which is a renewable energies union based in France, as well as the MEDEF International, which is non-profit organization with regards to the French companies.

India, itself, is emerging as a ‘global hub of solar energy’ and with the ISA, the poorer countries can essentially join a platform to bargain with the oil-rich states, whilst reducing their dependence on the latter, in the process saving a lot of foreign exchange as well. There are ongoing talks with regards to the creation of a World Solar Bank, which will be based in India and the steering committee of the ISA is pushing forward with the agenda, with India poised to become a lead member, whilst picking up 30 percent stake in the proposed bank, which will be achieved via a $ 600 million equity commitment.

An amalgam of volatile states like Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which boast of an abundance of solar energy, can join this institutional framework, so as to kick start the creation of an ‘alternative electricity grid’, which is premised upon solar energy. It must be pointed out in this respect that some of the Central Asian states like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, despite achieving 99 percent electrification, suffer from ‘energy poverty’ because of the poor maintenance of grids, as complemented by a lackadaisical infrastructural arrangement.

The ISA has made attempts to connect with regional groupings like the Indian Ocean Renewable Ministerial (IORM), whereby, in a meeting convened in October, 2018, an agreement was signed to share ‘technological knowhow’, alongside augmenting ‘joint cooperation’, so as to harness solar energy. Similar agreements can be effectuated with other regional groupings like the Organisation of African Unity, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as well as the Group of Latin American and Caribbean Countries. Similar agreements must especially be signed to tap the lithium resources present in Latin America, with countries like Chile, Argentina and Bolivia boasting of the largest deposits of the same, which can be put to effective use in producing batteries. It must be remembered that during the state visit of the Indian President Ram Nath Kovind to Bolivia, both the states gave the nod to jointly produce Lithium batteries, with Bolivia expressing its keen desire to join the ISA itself.

In conclusion, it can be said that the ISA will certainly add to a new found momentum to the ‘energy diplomacy’ of the 21^st century, by harping upon the aspects of ‘trans-regional energy cooperation’, which will pave the way for the creation of a ‘just energy order’ in the international fora. However, India has provided limited financial support for this effort and it is not a ‘solar technology innovator’ or the source of low-cost solar products such as panels and inverters unlike China. The ISA’s geopolitical significance, will in turn, be determined by its ability to provide ‘joint gains’ to its members in the coming decades. Thereby, overcoming a plethora of challenges as currently plaguing the domestic solar program, augmenting institutional strength whilst standing out in a ‘crowded ecosystem’ of global renewables organizations, will be key towards the attainment of India’s much coveted ‘solar leadership’ and its corresponding world influence.

Debayan Ghatak

Intern, AGA

References

1. Nalin Kumar Mohapatra, “Why the International Solar Alliance is geopolitically significant”, DownToEarth, April 19, 2019, https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.downtoearth.org.in/blog/energy/amp/why-the-international-solar-alliance-is-geopolitically-significant-64080
2. Pia Krishnankutty, “All about International Solar Alliance, co-founded by France & India, to promote solar energy”, ThePrint, January 29, 2021, https://www.google.com/amp/s/theprint.in/theprint-essential/all-about-international-solar-alliance-co-founded-by-france-india-to-promote-solar-energy/594010/%3famp