Taiwan’s Uncertain Future with China at Its Doorstep.

Posted on : August 22, 2022
Author : Ankita Sen

ABSTRACT Taiwan, an island about 100 miles off the coast of southeast China, is America’s 11th largest trading partner and the world’s 22nd largest economy, yet it struggles with its national identity. For several years, this inland territory has been under constant threat of Chinese invasion, and with the recent developments, there is minimal hope of mending relations between the two countries. However, the question that arises is, why did China suddenly feel unsettled by Nancy Pelosi’s visit, and how does America’s growing ties with Taiwan pose a hindrance to China’s rise to hegemony? As a result, this article will provide answers to these questions, as well as a thorough analysis of Taiwan’s current situation, emphasizing its importance in global politics and assessing its prospects for a positive future.

 

Taiwan has always been in the news for several reasons, but recently, the nation grabbed headlines because of American Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s much-anticipated visit to the tiny island (Nation). Taiwan has the world’s 22nd largest economy and controls the world’s semiconductor chip markets, yet it struggles to exist as a country. Taiwan’s plight is not just limited to its identical crisis; it has also faced severe aggressive actions from mainland China for several decades. Chinese aircraft have occasionally violated its territorial boundaries, and military exercises are conducted in close proximity to the Taiwanese mainland. However, before diving into the reasons why China feels the intense need to rule Taiwan, it is important to understand its significance and what the big giant can gain from it.

The answer to it lies in Taiwan’s geographical location, as it is situated at the confluence of the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and the Philippine Sea. It is also very close to Okinawa, so it has been heavily influenced by Japan. This proves that whoever rules the island gains a distinct advantage over its adversaries. As a result, if China gains control, it will exert power not only in the Pacific but also on Japan, the Philippines, and other ASEAN nations.

In other words, China will hit several birds with one stone. However, if it is ruled by another country or if Taiwan itself becomes a sovereign nation, the ruler will be able to project itself over China.

Despite the fact that the United States does not recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state, the country’s presence and significance in US foreign policy are enormous. The United States of America has provided Taiwan with various forms of assistance, including the sale of military hardware, but the country’s most important ally has yet to recognize this territory as a nation, and it is surprising that the United States of America is still a signatory to the One China Policy, which itself challenges Taiwan’s very existence.

This begs the question of what the One China Policy is and how it is one of the reasons China rules Taiwan.

The One China Policy, signed or agreed upon by the world’s major economies, including the United States, accepts that there is one China on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and indirectly reaffirms mainland China’s control over Taiwan, as the former is not yet recognized as a country.

As a result of this policy, there is no internationally recognized border between China and Taiwan, which gives the People’s Republic of China (PRC) some authority to conduct military exercises in Taiwan’s territorial waters.

To begin with, tensions between the United States and China over Pelosi’s visit began before she even arrived on the island. Her trip to Taiwan had been widely publicized in advance, prompting complaints and warnings from the Chinese government as, according to them, the speaker’s visit gravely undermines China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, but Pelosi snubbed Beijing’s warning and decided to go ahead with her plans.

 

 

Surprisingly, though, the White House has been quite careful in its statement by insisting that Pelosi’s visit was her decision and her decision alone, while defending her right to visit the island nation and also choosing to remain silent on whether it agrees with her or not. This clearly highlights how the US desperately wants to balance its relationship with China, which is in its poorest state. According to foreign policy experts, the White House’s efforts to persuade Beijing that it must distinguish between the behaviour of the top Democrat in Congress and the Democratic administration’s intent are also futile.

Nixon’s visit to China in 1972 was a significant move because it signalled a warming in China-United States (US) relations. It was a stunning development in international politics and was often referred to as the “week that changed the world.” According to the Shanghai Communique, normalizing relations between the People’s Republic of China and the United States was to benefit global peace and have an impact on regional security.

Now, Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan has exposed China’s double standards. Xi Jinping asserted China’s territorial integrity in his July talks with Biden and insisted that America must adhere to the People’s Republic’s notion that both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to China, which has already been enshrined in the China-US joint communique. During negotiations between Nixon and Chinese leaders in 1972, America affirmed this position with the caveat that the Chinese themselves resolve the Taiwan issue peacefully.

However, in 2022, as proved by Pelosi’s visit, the Chinese abandoned the word “peaceful” and fighter jets and navy ships began approaching the island on drills. Not only is it circling Taiwan like a hawk, but it has also imposed sanctions on Pelosi and her family, and has retaliated with military action in the days following her visit, including missile launches over the island.

“Pelosi to Taiwan” represents the looming threat to democratic nations, as it comes at a time when democracies are increasingly under pressure from revanchist autocrats like Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. Pelosi left Taiwan after upholding the island’s democratic credentials and pledging support for it, much to China’s disdain. More importantly, it has highlighted China’s duplicity, as it talks about the People’s Republic’s territorial integrity while assisting Putin in trampling on Ukraine from behind the curtain.

Furthermore, this support for Taiwan comes as a threat to China because if the US-Taiwan relationship strengthens, then the US will be able to exert control over a massive geographical location and will also be able to control the market for semiconductors. China cannot allow this to happen because it wants to control trade through the Taiwan Strait while also protecting its shipping lanes. Because the Chinese economy is based on exports, China requires control over Taiwan in order to have complete control over this trade route. Keeping in mind China’s various initiatives, such as the Belt and Road initiative and the string of pearls, it is clear that China’s greatest tool is economic trade.

Therefore, this begs us to think of the future, and here the question arises: now that China is holding military drills around Taiwan, trying to intimidate the island nation and given its military power, can it annex Taiwan? Will Taiwan forever lose the little freedom it has?

The simple conclusion is no. An amphibious assault would be disastrous for China, and the country is well aware of this. The political manoeuvrings required to create the necessary conditions for a viable attempt are nearly impossible to calculate. The PRC does not lack the troops required to take Taiwan; rather, the cost is deemed too high.

With the country’s current control over Taiwan through its One China Policy, there is the possibility that it will try to control the islands in certain ways, but if Taiwan continues to receive support from powerful countries like the US, China will be forced to take action in Taiwan’s favour. After all, no country wishes to pay the price for its actions by losing all of its allies.

 

Ankita Sen,

Intern, Asia in Global Affairs

 

 

References

  • China announces fresh military drills around Taiwan, Aug 08, 2022, The Economic Times

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/china-says-continuing-military-drills-around-taiwan/articleshow/93422274.cms

 

  • Explained: The ‘One China’ policy which is at crux of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, August 3, 2022, FP Explainers, Firstpost

https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/one-china-policy-nancy-pelosis-visit-to-taiwan-11002751.html

 

  • The Bane of Legitimacy, August 03, 2022, The Columnist

https://thecolumnist.org/news/newsitem/the-bane-of-legitimacy?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=g&utm_content=615003486892&utm_term=pelosi

 

  • Pelosi Visit to Taiwan May Prompt More Hight Level Visits, August 05, 2022, Yinan Wang

https://www.voanews.com/a/pelosi-visit-to-taiwan-may-prompt-more-high-level-visits-/6687979.html

 

  • Pelosi’s defiant Taiwan trip casts shadow on US’ One-China policy, Aug 4, 2022, Chidanand Rajghatta

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/nancy-pelosi-casts-shadow-on-us-one-china-policy/articleshow/93328228.cms

 

  • Explained: Why a proposed Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan has raised US-China tensions, July 27, 2022, AP

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-why-a-proposed-nancy-pelosi-visit-to-taiwan-has-raised-us-china-tensions-8052768/

 

  • Significance of Taiwan; Why The tiny Island Matters So Much?, August 6, 2022, Amit Bansal, India.com

https://www.india.com/news/world/significance-of-taiwan-why-the-tiny-island-matters-so-much-5556812/

 

  • ‘Pelosi to Taiwan’ exposes China’s two-facedness on territorial integrity, Aug 07, 2022, Kalpita Mankikar

https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/pelosi-to-taiwan/

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