Russia and the Black Sea Grain Initiative

On August 13, 2023, a Russian naval vessel fired warning shots at a cargo ship in the south-western Black Sea as the vessel was proceeding northward. It was the first time Russia has fired shots on a merchant ship after the ship’s captain failed to “respond to a request to halt for an inspection” (Faulconbridge, 2023). Since the war between Russia and Ukraine escalated in February 2022,experts have correlated a range of worldwide challenges with this war. They posit that while the Coronavirus had already undermined the global supply chain, the conflict in Ukraine delivered the final blow, causing it to collapse entirely (Noble, 2022). The impact of this war on the global supply chain has been linked to food shortages around the world.  Russia and Ukraine are major producers of staple food items and they provide 90% of the wheat supply to many low income countries in Eastern Europe, Asia and Africa.

In order to prevent the worsening food crisis, the Black Sea Grain Initiative or initiative on the safe transportation of grain and foodstuff from Ukrainian ports was signed between Türkiye, Russia and Ukraine in July 2022. The purpose of this initiative as stated by the agreement was “to facilitate the safe navigation for the export of grain and related foodstuffs and fertilizers, including ammonia from the Ukrainian Ports of Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny” (United Nations News, 22 July 2022). A Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) was set up with representatives from Ukraine, Russia, Türkiye and the United Nations to ensure safe transit of vessels with the help of an Inspection Team. It enabled Ukraine to ship millions of desperately needed grain exports through the Black Sea.

Suspension of the initiative

After one year, in the wake of Ukraine’s attack on the Crimean Bridge, Russiaannounced the cancellationof the initiative on June 17, 2023. Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova officially stated: “Main parameters provided for in the [grain] deal do not work. Therefore nothing can be said about optimism” (TASS, 2023). Her statement hinting at the increasing western (U.S., U.K. and European) sanctions against Russia. These sanctions proved to be obstacles for Russia to export its own agricultural products in the world market. Russia has demanded these grievances to be addressed for renewal of the initiative:

• First is related to the Russian Agricultural Bank. On July 17, the Russian Foreign Ministry demanded that the aforementioned bank be reconnected to the SWIFT system that has been cut off the sanctions. The demand also included “resumption of spare parts deliveries, establishment of transportation logistics and insurance, restoration of Russian companies’ access to their foreign assets.” (TASS, July 17, 2023)
• Second main cause of Russia to cancel the initiative is linked to the Tolyatti-Odessa It is the world’s longest ammonia pipeline and was blown up by Ukrainian forces on June 8, 2023. The Russian defence ministry responded with a statement “Ukraine sabotage group” has blown up a section of the pipeline and it is going to be “negative for black sea grain deal” as Russia has no other safe way to export its grain. (The Hindu, June 8, 2023).
• Third factor for the cancellation is Russia’s inability to import machinery and spare parts due to sanctions. Russia has repeatedly insisted on the removal of restrictions that prevent Russian ships to buy insurance and enter ports of many countries. These issues regarding transportation logistics have impacted the Russian agricultural sector (TASS, July 17, 2023).

Russia rebuffed UN chief’s call to grain deal by reminding that the agreement between UN and Russia made has not facilitated Russia food and fertilizer exports. The United Nations and Russia signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in which Russia agreed to “facilitate the unimpeded export of food, sunflower oil, and fertilizer from Ukrainian controlled Black Sea ports. For its part, the UN agreed to “continue efforts to facilitate the . . . unimpeded access of food and fertilizers, including raw materials required to produce fertilizers” originating in Russia to world markets.  On the contrary, from the war’s onset, Western observers have downplayed the implications of sanctions on Russia on global food security while exaggerating the impact of the suspension of black sea grain initiative on rising global food prices.

Impact of the Suspension

The Black Sea initiative was called ‘the beacon of hope’ (United Nations, 2022) as it helped to unlock the desperately-needed grain that would otherwise be stuck in Ukraine to reach countries like Somalia, Kenya, Yemen, Afghanistan, Bangladesh and others. While the immediate impact of the suspension was a disruption in regional agricultural cooperation, which the initiative aimed to foster. Sanctions on Russia have equally impacted trade relations, information sharing, and collaborative efforts among participating countries. Russia has expressed interest in resolving the issue during the Russia-Africa Economic Humanitarian Forum in July 2023 where the topic of food security was front and centre. Heads of state from 17 African countries attended the summit in St. Petersburg. According to President Putin’s press secretary, “The United States, France and other states through their diplomatic missions in African countries have put pressure on the leadership of these countries to prevent their active participation in the Forum” (Roth, 2023). The presence of the participating members was lower than the last summit means the possibility of Western influence on the participants to isolate Russia but it also suggests their disapproval of the ongoing war. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and other African leaders urged President Vladimir Putin to resume the grain deal. President Putin in his speech stated he is aware of the importance of uninterrupted supply of food product to African countries will continue to give special attention to supplying wheat, barley, corn and other grain crops. He further suggested that “Russia can well fill in the gap left by the withdrawal of the Ukrainian grain from the global market, either by selling its grain or by transferring it for free to the neediest countries in Africa, especially considering that this year we once again expect to have a record-high harvest.” (President of Russia Official Internet Resources, 2023). The Russian approach to replace Ukraine grain with Russian grain might not solve the problem of food security as the world needs supply from both countries.

Russia has repeatedly outlined the terms of resuming the deal multiple times, which included reconnecting its Agricultural Bank to SWIFT, restarting the ammonia pipeline and permitting imports of agricultural machinery and parts and unlocking transportation insurance. The Western alliance needs to reassess the policies that have impacted Russia’s grain export. Coordination is required between Russia and the West to ensure that both Russia and Ukraine are able to export grains as per the treaties signed among the parties so that the ongoing war does not disrupt the agricultural cooperation.

References:

• United Nations. (2022, July 22). Initiative on the Safe Transportation of Grain and Foodstuffs from Ukrainian Ports. https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/black_sea_grain_initiative_full_text.pdf
• International Crisis Group. (2022, Aug 3). Who are the winners in the Black Sea Grain Deal?.https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/eastern-europe/ukraine/who-are-winners-black-sea-grain-deal
• United Nations News. (2022, July 22). Black Sea grain export deal ‘a beacon of hope’ amid Ukraine war-Guterres. https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/07/1123062,
• TASS: Russian New Agency (2023, July 6). Russian Foreign Ministry having no optimism on grain deal extension.https://tass.com/economy/1643451
• Democracy Now. (2023, July 28). After Pulling Out of Black Sea Grain Deal, Putin Pledges Free Grain to 6 African Nations. https://www.democracynow.org/2023/7/28/headlines/after_pulling_out_of_black_sea_grain_deal_putin_pledges_free_grain_to_6_african_nations
• Noble, Paul J. (2022, March 12). The Ukraine-Russia War’s Impact on The Supply Chain: Why MRO Optimization is a Top Priority. Forbes Magazine. https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulnoble/2022/05/12/the-ukraine-russia-wars-impact-on-the-supply-chain-why-mro-optimization-is-a-top-priority/?sh=d299bbf6d2ef
• TASS: Russian News Agency (2023, July 17). In Brief: Grain deal terminated failing to fulfil obligations to Russia. https://tass.com/politics/1648045
• United Nations News. (2022, July 21). Memorandum of Understanding between the Russian Federation and the the Secretariat of the United Nations on promoting Russian food products and fertilizers to the world markets. https://news.un.org/pages/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/MOU_21_July_UN-Secretariat86.pdf
• The Hindu (2023, June 9). Kremlin Says Ammonia Pipeline Blast is Negative for Black Sea Grain Deal. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/kremlin-says-ammonia-pipeline-blast-is-negative-for-black-sea-grain-deal/article66946968.ece
• Faulconbridge, G. (2023, August 14). Russian Warship Fires Warning Shots at cargo ship in Black Sear. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-warship-fires-dry-cargo-ship-black-sea-defence-ministry-2023-08-13/.
• Roth, A. (2023, July 26). Kremlin blames west for small number of leaders due at Russia-Africa summit. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/26/kremlin-blames-west-for-small-number-of-leaders-russia-africa-summit-ukraine-war-grain-deal-vladimir-putin?CMP=share_btn_tw
• Official Internet Resources of the President of Russia (2023, July 27). Plenary Session of the Russia-Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum.http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71814.

Rashid Abbasi

Intern, Asia in Global Affairs

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