Resolving the Crisis in Yemen – A Role for India?

The war in Yemen – a patchwork of state and non–state actors pursuing their own agenda – has now entered its fifth year. What started in 2011 as the arrival of the Arab Spring in Yemen has today metamorphosed into a multifaceted, layered conflict. Saudi Arabia is engaged in a so-called proxy war with Iran due to concerns about the spread of Iranian influence in North Yemen, an area that the Kingdom shares a long border with. Iran is allegedly lending material and ideological support to the Houthis^[1] 1 ,a group staunchly opposed to the internationally recognised Yemeni government of President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi. Saudi Arabia and the UAE along with several other Arab nations have since 2015 formed a coalition in support of President Hadi and have been engaged in conflict with the Houthis. Moreover, domestic and transnational actors, such as the South Yemeni separatists (al-Hirak and the Southern Transitional Council), the al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the ISIS, are making attempts to create a regime of their liking. Various attempts such as the GCC Initiative, mediation efforts by Oman and Kuwait, the National Dialogue Conference, UN-backed peace talks in Sweden, and UNSC resolutions failed to yield desirable results due to mutual mistrust amongst warring factions. However, certain domestic, regional, and international developments in the past year indicate that the time may be ripe for parties to reconvene at the negotiation table. Factors such as war-wariness, rifts in alliances, and economic and political pressure are taking a toll on this war.

Both Saudi Arabia and UAE are becoming increasingly aware that their military involvement in Yemen is becoming tedious, expensive, and has arguably failed to yield any of the results they had envisaged. A growing rift between the two Gulf leaders occurred, primarily on grounds of Saudi Arabia’s support for Al-Islah^[2] and UAE’s support for the southern separatists and the Southern Transitional Council. Saudi Arabia has also been criticised for not having been able to defeat the Houthis even after five years of aggression and for overestimating, at the outset, Iran’s involvement and influence over the Houthis. Various statements and decisions made in the past year show the potential of placating the crisis in Yemen, the most important of which are – (i) announcement by the Houthis of their willingness to halt attacks on Saudi Arabia, provided the coalition reciprocates^[3] ; (ii) signing of a peace and cooperation deal for a united front against the Houthis, brokered by Saudi Arabia, between the Yemeni government and the Southern Transitional Council. This has been supplemented with a statement by UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs saying that the Houthis, who are an important part of the Yemeni society, will form a part of the political resolution for Yemen; (iii) indirect talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the aftermath of a ruinous attack on Saudi Gas-oil Separation Plants in Abqaiq and Khurais; and by far the most important, (iv) indirect peace talks, mediated by Oman that is reported to be taking place between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. These may well be tepid announcements, but given rising economic and political burdens of this war for all parties involved, it would be wise to take them at face value and encourage the warring factions to come back to the negotiation table.

Implications for India

In August 2019, Yahya Yahya Ghobar, Consul General of Yemen in Mumbai made an appeal to  the government of India to respond to the situation in Yemen. In 2018 the UAE Ambassador to India Mr. Ahmed Albanna urged India to offer diplomatic support to the Arab coalition in Yemen, in the interest of energy security and counter-terrorism. So why is it that India should act on the

crisis in Yemen? India and Yemen share a common historical legacy of British colonial rule and Yemen is home to nearly 100,000 people of Indian origin.^[4] Both countries are part of a range of strategic, commercial, and educational partnerships, including knowledge-exchange programmes, import of Yemeni crude oil, scholarships, capacity-building, medical assistance, and the like. Stability in Yemen is also crucial for India’s economic interests as the Gulf of Aden and the Bab-el-Mandeb strait are one of the world’s most important maritime trade routes and acts as an important link between India and the Mediterranean. Therefore, for the safety of its diaspora and investments as well as for the greater humanitarian good, it is imperative for India to make substantial efforts to build a lasting peace in Yemen. India can do so on three major fronts:

(a) Counter-terrorism measures: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reiterated on various occasions, including at the recently conducted 74th session of the UNGA, the need for the international community to unite against global terrorism. Given the alarming presence of AQAP

and ISIS in Yemen, and in keeping with India’s fight against terrorism, India must endorse security and stabilization in Yemen and the Indian Ocean Region so as to prevent any overspill

of security threats to its own borders.

(b) Advice on political and structural reforms: India is known to have a fairly successful decentralised model of governance, wherein power is devolved to the lowest level of the administrative hierarchy. This has also allowed people from marginalized communities the opportunity to partake in the decision-making process. Yemen requires a similar decentralised power-sharing model given its societal diversity and the incessant competition for power.

(c) Export of essential items: Given the widespread famine and cholera epidemic, amongst other health concerns, in Yemen, India can expand its export of food grains, medicines, and other essential items needed for reconstruction in Yemen.

With the creation of acute food shortage, extreme poverty, and a cholera epidemic, Yemen’s has

proved to be one of the costliest of the Arab Spring since 2011. In order to prevent a relapse of this crisis, a strong Yemeni economy, polity, and identity must be developed. Learning from past shortcomings and developing a sustainable peace-building plan for Yemen is in the interest of all parties involved, in order to prevent a mass exile of vulnerable Yemeni citizens, to prevent obstacles to one of the world’s busiest maritime trade routes and source of oil, and to deny fertile ground to extremist and terrorist groups. This is pertinent for Indian interests in the region too, and as India enjoys genial relations with not only the US, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, but also with Iran – the key parties to the conflict – it must leverage this to push for talks for durable peace in Yemen.

Kasturi Misra

Kasturi Misra is currently a Research Intern at the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.

^[1] Officially known as Ansar Allah; members of Yemen’s Shi’ite minority.

^[2] Yemeni Islamist organisation, influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood.

^[3] Saudi Arabia’s response to this was cautious, as they emphasised that the Houthis’ deeds, not their words, would ultimately confirm their intentions.

^[4] Many of them were evacuated in 2015 as part of Operation Raahat of the Indian Armed Forces.