Pushing for Climate Adaptation in South Asia: A case of Existential Vulnerability

Global temperatures have already risen by 1.0°C from the pre-industrial levels and will reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if they continue to increase at the current rate. Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on global warming of 1.5°C has warned that current efforts would not achieve the Paris goal by mere reduction in emissions. As far as South Asia is concerned, the report says that exposure to multiple and compound climate-related risks increases between 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming, with greater proportions of people affected and susceptible to poverty. There are food security and health risks.

Climate change is fait accompli and, given the low level of emissions, there is little South Asia alone can do to make a dent in global warming. The only thing left is to focus on adaptation to ameliorate the impact of climate change on people and ecosystem. Timely adaptation requires proper planning and policies in place. For this, finance will be required to be raised at national and multilateral level from the public as well as private sector. Scaling up of such finance requires that the problem of climate change be understood with a regional perspective and the countries step forward collectively to demand equity and space for development. One of the most contentious issues during the recent negotiations of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) revolved around the mechanism of paying for ‘loss and damage’. The Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage is the main vehicle under the Convention to address loss and damage associated with climate change impacts in developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.

The region is so vulnerable that one its members, Maldives, may disappear under the sea. But the region did not cause the problem. The per capita greenhouse gas emission from the countries of the region is one of the lowest in the world. The emissions are very low when compared to top emitters like China and US. Compared to the region’s largest emitter India’s 2,597 million tonnes of Carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e), the USA emitted 5,561 and China 9,680 MtCO₂e in 2014. [1]

Emission Profile of SAARC countries compared to China and US (Data derived from CDIAC).

SAARC countries are also part of a larger grouping called G-77 and China, which is spearheading the cause of the developing countries. Adaptation was given little importance during the initial years of climate change negotiations. It requires building of resilience, capacity, finance and commitment. The South Asian countries have little time now to act. Bangladesh and Maldives is included in the list of UNEP’s ten most vulnerable nations to sea level rise. Since 1987, the Heads of State or Government of SAARC at successive Summits have reiterated the need to strengthen and intensify regional cooperation to preserve, protect, and manage the diverse and fragile eco-systems of the region including the need to address the challenges posed by climate change and natural disasters. It is interesting to note that just as IPCC was being formed, the Fourth summit of the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in 1988, held at Islamabad, launched its own programme to study the “Greenhouse gas effect and its impact on the region” in the wake of large scale floods, cyclones and natural disasters in the region. Since the 1988 summit, SAARC has been actively involved in environmental regulation in the region. But it failed to maintain the momentum in the field of adaptation and mitigation of climate change. The region must push for the inclusion of important elements during the COP-24 in Katowice, Poland:

1. Adequate finance for loss and damage: While the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage is in place, and Decision 1/CP.21 talks about the issue, there is yet no provision of finance availability in case of loss caused due to third party actions. Historical responsibility remains undefined.
2. Push for a best practices platform under the Koronivia work programme for agriculture, a decision of COP 23.
3. Stress on Paris Agreement’s global goal for adaptation and the role of developed countries and Green Climate Fund in increasing the capacities of developing countries in adapting to the climatic change.
4. Facilitative dialogue (Talanoa Dialogue) during COP-24 will also take stock of the pre-2020 commitments. This is the right place to stress adaptation related commitments, including on mobilising of finance under the Copenhagen Commitment.
5. Strengthening of National Adaptation Plans based on new knowledge and capacity building.

As per the Kaya Identity, there is a need to improve energy efficiency and strive for decarbonisation to achieve climate goals. However, this is dependent on improved technologies and alternative options that would require prioritised financing. The report ‘New Climate Economy’ (2016) mentions that an investment of around US$90 trillion is required in infrastructure in over the next 15 years. The global South will account for roughly two-thirds of global infrastructure investment (or about US$4 trillion per year) and can lead in building new sustainable infrastructure that ‘leapfrogs’ the inefficient, sprawling and polluting systems of the past. This calls for urgent action which would also coincide with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), many of which are directly linked to climate adaptation.

Himangana Gupta

(Consultant, National Communication Cell, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, New Delhi, India, Climate Change Adaptation Finance Fellow, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, Germany and Senior Adjunct Researcher, Asia in Global Affairs, Kolkata, India)

[1] Figures include only fossil fuel and cement emissions