Modi 2.0, BIMSTEC & the Act East Policy
Posted on : June 2, 2019Author : AGA Admin
The invitation to the BIMSTEC leaders at the second swearing-in ceremony of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a significant sign of the continuation of the first Narendra Modi government’s ‘neighbourhood first’ policy. If Modi displayed interest in reviving SAARC by inviting its leaders to his first inauguration as Prime Minister in 2014, in 2019 the vision shifts to the East. Morning shows the day. It is can be assumed that the second Narendra Modi government will prioritize collaboration with the South and Southeast Asian neighbours. However, the preparation for this shift was initiated during the first tenure. The first Modi government chose to count on SAARC members with lesser degree of conflict with India, avoiding Pakistan, to apparently promote collaborative development in India’s neighbourhood. He thus prudently approached BIMSTEC.
BIMSTEC or Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation is a group of South and Southeast Asian countries comprising five South Asian and two Southeast Asian countries- India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Myanmar and Thailand. The first Narendra Modi government drew attention by hosting the BIMSTEC –BRICS Joint Summit in Goa in November 2016. In 2015, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal concluded the BBIN Motor Vehicles Agreement (MVA) whose implementation issue was discussed by officials of the parties in Bengaluru in January 2018. The Agreement indeed is significant in the context of promoting connectivity with landlocked northeast India, considered as a gateway to Southeast Asia and a major pillar of India’s Act East Policy. In the last five years, the first Narendra Modi government focused on northeast to promote its Act East Policy via the land route. The Prime Minister visited northeast India as many as thirty times in the last four years and made the region a venue for many national and international conferences. The mission to integrate northeast India with the Act East Policy got further boost since the election of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in Assam in 2016. In February 2018, Assam government hosted the Global Investment Summit in Guwahati where Prime Minister Modi said that northeast India was at the heart of the Act East Policy. Assam government signed an agreement with the National Building Construction Corporation (NBCC) to build a 65-story Twin Tower Trade Centre in Guwahati and earlier two land border crossings were also opened in Manipur and Mizoram to promote overland travel between India and Myanmar. On the eve of her visit to Myanmar in May 2018, the External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj met with the north-eastern chief ministers and discussed the prospects of the Act East Policy with a view of integrating the region with the neighbourhood. There was also a move to promote air connectivity between northeast and ASEAN with a maiden flight taking off from Guwahati to Singapore in September 2018. And it was a Bhutanese airline, Druk Air.
Former speaker of Lok Sabha, late Purna Sangma once told the northeast people– “Look East means look south to Bangladesh first”. The first Narendra Modi government also thought similarly. Back in 2014, during his maiden visit to Bangladesh as Prime Minister, Modi said that Act East Policy starts from Bangladesh. Indeed, if one has to promote the policy via northeast, Bangladesh is integral to it. The World Bank, in its 2018 report, said that deeper regional trade and connectivity can reduce the isolation of Northeast India and can give Indian firms better access to markets in South Asia and East Asia. So far as connectivity is concerned, the ports of Bangladesh are vital for northeast India. In September 2018, Bangladesh government approved a draft agreement to allow India to use the Mongla and Chittagong ports for transporting goods to and from northeast India. The opening of the Chittagong port to northeast India is certainly a big help in connecting land locked northeast India with the sea, a prime objective of the India-Myanmar Kaladan Multi Modal Transit Project. The Chittagong access might however, reduce the importance of the Kaladan connectivity project by reducing the distance to the sea from the northeast.
BIMSTEC promotes both land and sea connectivity joining the neighbours of South and Southeast Asia. Modi called for greater connectivity among the BIMSTEC countries at the Summit meeting in Kathmandu in 2018. This connectivity is also the priority of the Act East Policy. Thus at the meeting Modi underlined his government’s importance to the BIMSTEC and even mentioned the focus of the Act East policy on closer cooperation with the dynamic economies of Southeast Asia and for that he stressed on connectivity. Presumably, he was inclined to view BIMSTEC as part of his Act East Policy. The Kaladan Project is also an important part of both BIMSTEC and the Act East Policy of India. The proper utilization of the sea as well as land routes of the eastern belt of the subcontinent is vital both from the economic as well as strategic perspective for India, given the growing appearance of the Chinese vessels in the Indian Ocean region and China’s economic clout over the Myanmar. India is reluctant to promote BCIM (Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar) scheme due to the China factor, especially where northeast India is involved. BIMSTEC is a better alternative for her. The India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, once completed, will be a major boost to the BIMSTEC connectivity. India has already initiated construction of the 109 km long Mizoram-Myanmar Kaladan Road costing 1,600 crore rupees.
The Act East mission focuses on countering terrorism, insurgency and piracy and BIMSTEC is a help in this regard. The recent terror attack in Sri Lanka has brought the Indian cooperation with the island nation to limelight while Sheikh Hasina government’s commitment to fight terror groups in Bangladesh is beyond suspicion. Myanmar’s anti-insurgency operation this February has put the northeast Indian rebel groups under pressure while India and Thailand agreed to devise strategy to combat terror during the visit of Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha to India in 2016. The two countries held anti-terror military exercise ‘Maitree’ in August 2018. Nepal, however, has been the odd man out in this list opting to skip the first BIMSTEC anti-terror drill in India in 2018. Nepal is vital to India both from the strategic (due to China factor) and security (due to existence of fake currency racket, smugglers and being safe haven for radicals and jihadis of India) perspectives.
Referring to former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s famous dream to have breakfast in Amritsar, lunch in Lahore and dinner in Kabul; former US ambassador to India, Richard Verma, told in a conference on connectivity in Kolkata in December 2016 that his country believes in a similar vision being within reach of Kathmandu, Kolkata, Dhaka, Yangon and beyond. What is noteworthy is USA has already expressed interest in collaborating with BIMSTEC to promote its Indo-Pacific strategy. Indeed, BIMSTEC brings the starting point of the Act East mission nearer home. It has immense potential to make the mission a success and is indispensible in order to make ‘Act East’ more effective. BIMSTEC has made the Act East Policy a joint endeavour of South and Southeast Asia. And if Second Modi government wants to ‘Act East’ effectively, BIMSTEC is vital to its strategy.
Subhadeep Bhattacharya
Adjunct Researcher, AGA
02-06-2019
Thank you Subhadeep Bhattacharya for such a lucid take on Indias growing priority for connectivity with east and southeastern Asia through a robust infrastructure and network of road, water and air. However, the piece omits mention of Chinas BRI or growing China Nepal or Myanmar’s proChina inclination or the necessity for engaging with numerous militant groups and civil society groups who could come forward either to restrain or facilitate such initiative to boost regional growth. It’s important primarily because the state cannot on its own implement such programme. The community support needs to be garnered not only for trade but also to keep check on smuggling rackets affecting health, morale and largely internal security. This regionalization requies shift from unilateralism of state-sponsored schemes towards vibrant market friendly community, without which they is every possibility of leakage or resistance or lack of reconciliation between centre and local satrups. If there exists fissure, it can be exploited by China or any militant groups prejudicial to the interest of such project. So, dialogue is also important for penetration which requires vision, patience and willingness.