Looming Crisis in India-Maldives Relations
Posted on : December 12, 2022Author : Dwaipayan Sinha
Abstract- The elections in Maldives which are scheduled for 2023 is of paramount importance to India considering the fact that the two major parties MDP and PPM hold contrasting views on India. The pro-China PPM has been the integral force behind the ‘India Out’ campaign as the party believes that India has been interfering in their local issues. The strategic competition between India and China continues to be played on Maldivian soil. Yameen, the leader of PPM, has not been shy of expressing his fondness for the Chinese. This article explores the Maldivian political sphere and how the ‘India Out’ campaign is affecting India’s interests in Maldives.
Keywords- Maldives, PPM, MDP, Solih, Nasheed, Yamen, India, China
India’s influence seems to be diminishing in Maldives. Maldives is scheduled to go to elections in 2023 and its polity is divided between the Maldivian Democratic Party(MDP) , which holds a pro-India stance, and the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), which holds a pro-China stance. PPM has been instrumental in organising anti-India campaigns on issue of Muslim oppression in India under the current Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government. The MDP is also a divided unit. There are deep ideological differences between MDP’s icon and Majlis Speaker Mohamed Nasheed and his party rival Ibrahim Mohamed Solih. Solih turned out to be the compromise presidential candidate of the MDP before the 2018 election. The two leaders have divergent opinions on how to run the government. Solih managed to wrest control of the government from the then President Abdullah Yameen in 2018 even though the deck was heavily in favour of the latter.[i]
Maldives is made up of 1200 islands and is often ravaged by nature. Religious fundamentalism has also reared its ugly head in the last few years. As per data recorded in 2019, Maldives sends the largest number of foreign fighters per capita in the world. It is estimated that there are about 1400 extremists based in Maldives who are working for the Islamic State (IS) as per a report by the European Foundation for South Asian Studies.[ii] Among them, 423 people have made attempts to go to war zones in Iraq and Syria. Maldives, which hosts about 560,000 people,saw 173 people being successful in reaching either Syria or Iraq.
As the election in 2023 approaches , the voters are holding the MDP accountable for the unfulfilled promises it made in 2018. The probe to assassinate Nasheed on 6th May, 2021 has failed to move beyond the trial stage. After having serious injuries, he was taken abroad for medical treatment. “The current delay in the trial of the accused in the May 6 incident is of serious concern. Months have passed since the charges were framed. Only one case received a trial. Others are only in pre-trial stage. Unclear of whether trials will be batched together to avoid unnecessary delays,” said the government’s special envoy to monitor the investigation, prosecution and the trial of the terrorist attack against Nasheed, Abbas Faiz.[iii]Nasheed came under attack for the third time on May 6.[iv] The culprits behind such attempts are yet to be found.
Maldivians are also upset with Solih as he has not lived up to the promise of judicial reforms. Judicial reforms are necessary in Maldives as there have been several instances of judicial malpractices[v]. Solih government’s failure to enact judicial reforms have been highlighted by his critics. These are essential in light of the rising extremist flavour in the country. Police reforms also await action.[vi]
‘India Out’ Campaign in Maldives
The ‘India Out’ and the ‘ Indian Military Out’ campaigns have been brought about by former President Yameen. PPM has been vital in organising rallies and protests on this campaign. Maldivians have been upset with the long-standing controversy over the two Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopters (ALF). These were given by India to the island nation in 2010 and 2015 to conduct search-and-rescue operations.[vii] The Indian officers had been sent to the Maldives to train the Maldives National Defence Force as per agreement between the two nations. The helicopters operate under the Force. The Yameen government decided to ask India to take away the choppers when anti- India sentiment gained some prominence in the Maldives.[viii] Additionally, he declined to extend the term of the agreement that would extend their stay and use in the Maldives. India reportedly refused to take back the helicopters and that created a huge controversy in the Maldives and further strengthened anti-India sentiments. It was only after Solih came to power in 2018 that he decided to immediately resign all these agreements. He extended the stay and use of the helicopters in the Maldives.[ix]
PPM, on its part, propagates that they don’t hold grudges against India. “Contrary to what you may read… sometimes, it’s not as much as India with the current administration and PPM being pro-China. It’s far from it. We’ve had good relations with India as well. But the sort of relations that this government has, has transcended what we believe to be normal diplomatic and development ties,” Mohamed Shareef, vice-president of PPM told the IndianExpress.com. “While we welcome India being a very close development partner, the issue arises when certain boundaries are overstepped, particularly when it comes to sovereignty, national defence issues, and the government in particular has opted at times to keep the relationship under wraps which is where the criticism stems from.”
Additionally, the Maldivians are unhappy with the lack of transparency in the government deals that are being signed between the two nations. “An agreement or arrangement that is made with a development partner has to be shared with Parliament and approved. That is a law, in fact it is a part of the Constitution. And the government refuses to share any documents… They just say it is a national security issue and we can’t give details. and that’s the void that is filled by concern here and criticism and at times, protest as well,” Shareef explained to the IndianExpress.com.
The campaign has received a lot of support from the PPM cadres. Yameen hopes to come back to power on these issues. The narrative of the PPM is that the present Solih regime is acting as the puppet of the anti-Muslim Indian government. The fear among Maldivians is that the Indian military might take control of Maldives soon.[x]“Any sort of military presence on our soil is not welcome and it is not welcome by a vast majority of Maldivians and these agreements have given India that right. We are going to annul these agreements because they don’t conform to our Constitution and sadly, we’re going to have to ask the Indian military to leave the day the government changes, which is going to be in another two years,” Shareef told the IndianExpress.com. “The ‘India Out’ campaign is a false and dangerous narrative being promoted by groups of a few individuals through media platforms, both traditional media and social media, trying to fuel negative and vilifying perceptions about India. I believe this is the same group of people who are desperately trying to instil fear and use public emotions to character assassinate current leaders, using various religious slogans,” Parliamentary Group leader of the MDP MP Ali Azim told IndianExpress.com clarifying his party’s stand.[xi]
The ‘India Out’ campaign has regained a lot of support in 2022. This is due to the fact thatYameen got his release from house arrest in late 2021.Even though the ‘India Out’ campaign has not received the kind of support that PPM was ideally hoping for, it has resulted in some incidents. An Indian doctor was thrown out of a taxi without any reason in February 2022. Social media users in Maldives praised the driver for his “bravery”. ” Recently, an Indian doctor has also been removed from a fact. There will be a lot of danger from the conflict that is being taken from 200 protesters in the islands,” remarked Fayyaz Ismail, the Economic Development Minister.[xii] He warned of further attacks and explained that the Indian military personnel present in Maldives were brought by the previous administration and no further addition has been made. There was another incident when social media blew up with rumours of an Indian national being drunk after a minor accident involving him took place in Male. Consumption of alcohol is not legal in the inhabited islands of Mali. It is permitted only on the tourist islands. After the Indian was let off without prosecution, social media was abuzz with allegations that Indians could get away with committing crimes as they had the Maldivian administration in their pocket.
The prevailing sentiment against India has received impetus after reports of attacks against Muslims in India reached the Maldivians. Even the tiniest of incidents are recorded and widely circulated on social media. Social media plays an important role in shaping the political narrative in the Sunni Muslim country. Thus, the Maldivians are well aware of anti-Muslim actions and events taking place in India. This has made them have bitter opinions about Indians.[xiii]
Political Crises in MDP
The internal factionalism in the pro-India MDP camp is causing further tension especially as the election season is almost here.[xiv] The internal elections are soon to be held in the MDP and that is expected to be a chaotic affair. The friction between Nasheed and Solih is likely to result in the current MDP chairperson and Member of Parliament Hassan Latheef sitting out of the contest. It is expected that Fayyaz Ismail will go against someone from the Nasheed camp. Fayyaz is popular among the people for being a good administrator and has considerable clout among party men owing to his position in the government. Thus, he has a good chance to ensure the loyalties of the party men are shifted in his favour which will help him consolidate his position in the party. How this will affect Nasheed remains to be seen. He remains the face of the party and enjoys massive popularity. He had earlier decided not to contest for presidency in 2018. If he sees his fortunes waning inside the party, he might decide to split the party which will result in a complete disaster for the MDP at the polls. The Foreign Minister Abdullah Shahid is also a known face in the MDP. On June 7, 2021, he was elected the president of the 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly.[xv]
Role of India in Maldives
The earlier Yameen administration (2013-2018) was blatantly pro-China in its outlook. It ensured that India was replaced by China in all infrastructural projects and India’s presence on Maldivian soil was limited. The Yameenadministration was quite popular for its infrastructural development initiatives even though it ran up a huge debt. A bridge was built between the airport island of Hulhumale and the capital island of Male during Yameen’s term.[xvi] One massive mosque financed by Saudi Arabia and a township on the man-made island of Hulhumale were also made. Work was initiated to build a second runway at Maldives’ main airport called the Venala International Airport.[xvii] It is expected to be in operation by the end of 2022.
The MDP won the elections in 2018 by a massive margin and this resulted in India getting back its clout in Maldives. However, India was not happy with the Chinese still continuing to have some amount of influence in Maldives. India pushed for more concessions in Maldives even when the present regime made it clear that it was interested in following in an ‘India first’ policy[xviii]. India expected that the Solih regime would follow an ‘India only’ policy and completely cut out China like Yameen had done with India. India provides budgetary support to Maldives. The two governments also execute projects in tandem. The High Commission of India in Maldives announced in April that $1.8 million worth seven new projects in health, youth development and heritage conservation was to be implemented in the Maldives.[xix] Under this special scheme with India, 27 projects worth $10 millionwill be taken up in the ecotourism, sustainable development, agriculture, heritage and culture, health, education and infrastructural spheres.
However, India has to face some serious challenges to its ambitions in Maldives given China’s competing interests. Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar visited Maldives in March 2022.[xx]Ajit Doval, India’s National Security Advisor, participated in the fifth NSA-level meeting of the Colombo Security Council in Male in March 2022.[xxi] The Indian administration is leaving no stone unturned to reach out and win over the powerful families in Maldives. The Indian government has been able to successfully keep its influence in Maldives thus far. But the future looks unpredictable as the tensions are rising over anti-Muslim activities in India and the Maldivian government’s failure to satisfy the needs of the people. As such, it is quite likely that a government will come to power in Maldives which does not have India’s best interests in mind.
Dwaipayan Sinha
Intern,
Asia in Global Affairs
[i]Maldives election: Ibrahim Mohamed Solih claims victory
(https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45592375)
[ii]The Maldives’ Foreign Fighter Phenomenon – Theories and Perspectives
(https://www.efsas.org/publications/articles-by-efsas/the-maldives%E2%80%99-foreign-fighter-phenomenon-theories-and-perspectives/)
[iii]Current delay in trial of accused in May 6 attack is of serious concern: Special Envoy Abbas
(https://raajje.mv/113487)
[iv]“I Could Have Been Next”
Stymied Reforms in the Maldives
( https://www.hrw.org/report/2022/04/14/i-could-have-been-next/stymied-reforms-maldives)
[v]The Maldives’ judiciary thwarted another attempt at reform – by suspending a third of its lawyers
(https://scroll.in/article/850879/the-maldives-judiciary-thwarted-another-attempt-at-reform-by-suspending-a-third-of-its-lawyers)
[vi]Maldives: Reforms Fall Short in Curbing Threats to Free Speech
(https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/14/maldives-reforms-fall-short-curbing-threats-free-speech)
[vii]Maldives returns helicopter gifted by India: A look at how ties between the two nations have deteriorated in 2018
(https://www.firstpost.com/india/maldives-returns-helicopter-gifted-by-india-a-look-at-how-ties-between-the-two-nations-have-deteriorated-in-2018-4417923.html)
[viii]Maldives’ Yameen wants India to withdraw military helicopters, personnel
(https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2018/08/11/maldives–yameen-wants-india-to-withdraw-military-helicopters–p.html)
[ix]New govt of Maldives likely to keep 2 Indian choppers previous president didn’t want
(https://theprint.in/defence/new-govt-of-maldives-likely-to-keep-2-indian-choppers-previous-president-didnt-want/151451/)
[x]Why Do Some Maldivians Want The Indian Military Out?
https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/why-do-some-maldivians-want-the-indian-military-out-51899
[xi]Explained: What is behind the ‘India Out’ campaign in the Maldives?
(https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/the-maldives-india-out-campaign-explained-7396314/
[xii]Indian doctor ejected from a taxi: Minster Fayyaz
(https://edition.mv/news/23893)
[xiii]Assessing the anti-India sentiment in South Asia (Part 1)
(https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/assessing-the-anti-india-sentiment-in-south-asia-part-1/)
[xiv]Correct the course, Nasheed tells Solih
(https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/correct-the-course-nasheed-tells-solih/article35387301.ece)
[xv]Foreign Minister of Maldives elected next General Assembly President
( https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/06/1093532)
[xvi]My story: Bridge of hope for Maldives
(https://news.cgtn.com/news/3d3d414d7959444d34457a6333566d54/index.html)
[xvii]Velana International Airport has temporarily started using the new runway as a parallel taxiway.
( tps://www.routesonline.com/airports/14252/maldives-airports-company-limited/news/297487/velana-international-airport-has-temporarily-started-using-the-new-runway-as-a-parallel-taxiway/)
[xviii]Maldives committed to ‘India first’ policy: Male to New Delhi
(https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/maldives-committed-to-india-first-policy-male-to-new-delhi/story-uvWplzYARSuYTisa5NyyZL.html)
[xix]Maldives committed to ‘India first’ policy: Male to New Delhi
(https://www.wionews.com/india-news/indias-development-partnership-with-maldives-continues-7-pacts-signed-471965)
[xx]Visit of External Affairs Minister to Maldives and Sri Lanka (March 26-30, 2022)
(https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/35078/Visit+of+External+Affairs+Minister+to+Maldives+and+Sri+Lanka+March+2630+2022)
[xxi]Maldives: Ajit Doval Attends 5th NSA-Level Meeting, Seeks To Strengthen Regional Security
https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/maldives-ajit-doval-attends-5th-nsa-level-meeting-seeks-to-strengthen-regional-security-articleshow.html
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