Indo-Maldives ties and the growing relevance of Maldives in the Indo-Pacific region

Abstract

Recently, the Maldives has been witnessing a huge spate of protests, popularly known as the “India Out” campaign. The organizers of the campaign have stated that their agenda is to end Indian presence in the Maldives. This comes at a time when India not only shares good relations with Maldives but the latter has emerged as a significant player in the Indo-Pacific Region. Major nation-states such as the U.S.A. and China have also deepened their ties with the Maldives through strategic investments. It is in this context that the article argues how it’s important for India to work around the issues that prevail in Maldives currently.

India and Maldives have always shared historically strong ties. Further, with the Ibrahim Solih Government getting elected to power in the Maldives, since 2018, relations between India and Maldives have experienced a revitalisation of sorts after a rough patch from 2013 to 2018 ensued between the two nations. Yet even strong international partnerships have to face tough hurdles and challenges. The most recent challenge that has emerged in Indo-Maldives ties is the “India Out” Campaign that is currently gaining traction in the Maldives.

The “India Out” Campaign essentially refers to a set of on-site protests that swept the island country in 2020. It had a notable internet presence as well with the phrase “India out” finding its way across online conversations and other social media spaces and platforms. President Solih’s party, Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) believes that the reason why the campaign has enjoyed widespread publicity is because of Ahmed Azaan, a journalist who is the co-founder of Dhiyares, a local news company that publishes news articles and content pieces with a deliberate political attempt to propagate anti-India sentiments and mar Indo-Maldives ties. Speaking to the Indian press, Shifan Ahmed, another co-founder of Dhiryes, defended the “India Out” Campaign and said that it was in no way violent and intended no harm to Indians. He tried to clarify that the campaign specifically wants the Indian Government to end its military presence in the Maldives.

In December 2021, the campaign gained even more popularity with the acquittal of ex-President Abdulla Yameen after Maldives’ Supreme Court overturned his conviction in a money-laundering and embezzlement case. Yameen along with his supporters was seen sporting a bright red t-shirt with the phrase “India Out ” printed on it. When he was pursued furthermore as to why he chose to get associated with the movement, one of his ex-ministers Mohamed Saeed, who used to serve in the ministry of Economic Development said that Yameen was unhappy with how the Maldivian Government and Indian Government signed the UTF Harbour Project agreement in February 2021 where the latter would help the former develop a Maldives National Defence Force Coast Guard Harbour at Sifvaru –Uthuru Thilafalhu(UTF).

Yet, interestingly, the sentiment driving the “India Out” campaign is not a recent phenomenon. In fact, in the past too, the Yameen administration from 2013 to 2018 was never a big backer of Indian initiatives or projects in the Maldives. A controversy had emerged when in 2010 and 2015, India gifted two Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopters to the Maldives to operate between the islands of Addu Atoll and Hanimaadhoo. The helicopters were intended to be used for search and rescue purposes, carrying people from one island to the other and for maritime surveillance. The agreement between the two nations was that the Indian armed forces would train the Maldivian armed forces who would primarily operate the two helicopters. But Yameen’s party, the Progressive Party (PPM) tried to characterise India’s assistance as a ploy to establish a military presence in the Maldives. Due to such misconstrue, local anger started rising against India and there even came a point where the Yameen Government wanted to return the two Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopters to India but the latter did not take them back.

India must tend to this matter urgently since another major player with high stakes in the Indo-Pacific region is China. China and Maldives’ bilateral relations date back to 1972. Over the decades, China’s investment in the Maldives has significantly increased. From the mid-1980s, project contracting businesses have seen a high presence of Chinese companies. Interestingly, Sino-Maldivian relations became stronger when the Yameen government came to power in 2013. In 2014, president Xi Jinping of China paid a visit to China and convinced them to join the Brick and Road Initiative. Finally, not only did the Maldives join the initiative but it also signed a free trade agreement with China. There is significant Chinese investment in the infrastructure sector such as housing and road units. China is also helping with the expansion of Maldives’ primary international airport as well as the bridge that connects Male to Hulhule. Under the Yameen Government, Maldives accumulated a debt of nearly 1.5 billion dollars to China. Interestingly, Maldives’ GDP is barely 4 billion dollars.

Apart from China, the United States is also an important player when one talks about the Maldives. The United States and the Maldives signed a defence agreement in 2020. This was a major event because the only other country to have signed a defence agreement with the Maldives was India. Agri focused on increasing cooperation and engagement when it comes to the peace and security of the Indo Pacific region In fact during the pandemic in 2022 United States invested around 2.75 million dollars when it comes to helping the Maldives curb the pandemics not only did the United States provide the Maldives with ventilators it also helped train doctors and nurses to better manage the covid-19 crisis at the same time it also provided the Maldives with economic and fiscal solutions that could come to use in mitigating the effects of the pandemic on the Maldivian economy.

The Indian Ocean has always been an area of contest and has witnessed immense competition for control. In the era of colonialism, the British, French and Portuguese empires virtually controlled the entire length and breadth of the Indian Ocean. Even post-colonialism, during the Cold War, power games between the U.S.A and the USSR played out for greater influence over the Indian Ocean. But, post-USSR’s dissolution, the region did not see an intense power struggle up until recently with the incorporation of both the Indian and the Pacific Oceans as an important geostrategic hub- the Indo Pacific region. The Indo Pacific region also offers many important economic opportunities 65% of the world population that is 4.3 billion people live in this region and therefore The Indo-pacific region alone accommodates 63% of the world GDP. Additionally, more than 50% of global Maritime trade is carried out through the Indo-Pacific region.

In the context of the Indo-Pacific, littoral states have a great role to play because of the maritime routes available to them and the economic opportunities such a geographic feature contributes. In that sense, Maldives is a significant island nation and has a great role to play in the region. While it is natural for India as a neighbour to engage in an alliance with the Maldives that focuses on a host of economic partnerships and security arrangements, countries such as the United States and China also want to engage more deeply in the Indo-Pacific’s affairs and have been seen in recent years as a result attempting to strengthen ties with prominent littoral states of the region such as the Maldives and also other nations such as Sri Lanka.

So, with the Maldives emerging as a powerful state in the Indo-Pacific, it becomes important for India to work around issues that could emerge as potential obstacles in Indo Maldives ties. As long as India enjoys the goodwill of the Ibrahim Solih administration, there is an unlikely chance that ties between the two countries will deteriorate in any form. Yet, at the same time, the Indian Government should also engage with Maldivian nationals and press and try to dissuade any apprehensions they hold about India’s motives.

References

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Abhinav Nath Jha

Intern, Asia in Global Affairs