India in the Arctic Commons

With the gradual melting of the Arctic ice sheet as a supposed consequence of global warming, this hitherto less known polar ice cap’s importance may increase by leaps and bounds. For India which had assumed the position of an Observer at the Artic Council in 2013, the unravelling geopolitical contestation centering round the prospect of the opening of the Northern Sea Route, accompanying the wanton extraction of hitherto untapped energy resources, is a potent cause for immediate concern. Though not much studied upon, a latent yet adverse co-relation has been established between the melting of the Arctic ice sheet and the intensity of Indian monsoons. Such a major development has the impact of adversely affecting the mainstay of the Indian economy that is its agricultural sector, along with resulting in coastal denudation, due to the imminent rise in the sea level. In view of the global pandemic, the freshwater hitherto stagnant at the polar ice cap, could have the potential of releasing new pathogens into the global oceanic circulation.

Despite harboring such deep ecological concerns, India is currently finding it difficult to emerge victorious from ‘The Arctic Paradox’, so to say, as its interests of promoting greater scientific collaboration and research in this newly significant landmass, is at direct odds with the interests of the preponderant ‘Arctic States’ that is Russia, USA, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Greenland, Iceland, Finland and Sweden. These states tend to view the Arctic as a part and parcel of their territorial sovereignty, and claim that they possess full rights over the resources of this landmass. Some career diplomats like Shyam Saran, for instance, were very much critical over India’s acceptance of the controversial ‘sovereignty clause’, to gain membership into the Arctic Council, in the process limiting its options.

Thus, unlike the Antarctic Treaty of 1959, the prospect of developing the Arctic as a ‘global commons’ is unlikely, as the Artic states have respective resource strongholds, so to say, with Russia having a large reserve of natural gas reserves and Norway leveraging its strength on offshore oil exploration. There is also terse friction, as visible among these states, with regards to the establishment of Exclusive Economic Zones, under the aegis of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and the United Nations Commission for Limits of the Continental Shelf respectively. Mention must also be made of the fact that, the Arctic Council is a mutually cognizable and voluntary multilateral initiative, which regularly suffers from a paucity of financial resources, having no politico-strategic significance as such, but retaining a symbolic importance for nations, who are genuinely interested in tapping this emergent geopolitical space.

There is also a lot of differences in perception, as observable between the four Asian ‘Observer States’ namely India, South Korea, Japan, China and Singapore. Among these states, China was the first one to come up with a draft Arctic Policy in 2018, in the process, unambiguously positioning itself as a ‘Near Arctic State’, to be complemented with its ‘Polar Silk Road Initiative’. China, on account of its large population base and expansive resource need, is rubbing shoulders with the aforementioned core Arctic States, over their non-acceptance, for providing a much needed space for strategic maneuvering, for the non-Arctic States. China is also collaborating with Russia, as it embarks upon a joint territorial outreach initiative, concerning the emergent East and West Eurasian pathways, coupled with its background of leading at least nine expeditions to the Artic itself. In this instance, though, India can benefit from the Chinese assertiveness, it would largely abstain from such adventurism, given the hotly contested nature of the Indian Ocean Region, which can put its Quad engagement at risk.

Nonetheless, India is strategically situated within the Arctic resource overflow, by leveraging the exploration and tapping of bulk natural gas reserves in the Russian Far East, under the aegis of the ONGC Videsh Limited and GAIL, which is paradoxically a ‘clean’ source of energy. Notwithstanding, the current nature of strained Sino-Indian relations, on the backdrop of a large scale territorial contestation at India’s northern borders, the two nations may find common space for joint Himalayan expeditions, which may emerge as the famed ‘Third Pole’, housing a vast reservoir of riverine glaciers, which may become vital, amidst an ongoing ecological cum economic shift in the Arctic.

For other Asian players, there is mixed prospects, emanating out of an active Arctic engagement. Some like Singapore, rue about the potential dilution in its status of being a shining commercial hub in the Indo-Pacific, with the opening up of the NSR, but being a trading nation it has been quick to firm up its Arctic presence, while opening up educational opportunities for the indigenous Arctic populace, along with emerging as a generous contributor, to spur the infrastructural development of the region. Japan is concerned with the rising temperature levels in the Sea of Japan, which has the potential to adversely impact the marine population inhabiting its waters, and has displayed an instance of its concern, by entering into joint fishing agreements with several Arctic states like the USA and Canada. Though, it tries to project its Arctic outreach, as primarily hinged upon the undertaking of some pertinent scientific and geological exploration projects, Japan is wary of the loss of its Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant in 2017, and looking forward to the Arctic, which houses an assortment of crucial minerals like gold, nickel, copper and uranium, as a new resource haven. South Korea is an out and out materialist, and its burgeoning economic clout, coupled with the manufacturing capability of its private enterprises like Hyundai and Daewoo, to produce an assemblage of Polar Exploration Vessel, pits it in a favorable position, to ambitiously pursue its Arctic outreach.

It is rather unfortunate that most commentators and diplomats, in the present day Indian foreign policy establishment, consider the Arctic as remote a possibility, to be effectively configured in the geopolitical and geostrategic psyche of our nation. India’s science and exploration attempts, with regards to the Arctic, remain insufficient as of now, as its lone polar base Himadri which was established in 2008, remains non-operational during the winter. The optimists, however, provide far-fetched possibilities of developing joint agricultural ventures, by collaborating with India’s long-time Arctic friend Russia, by sending bulk Indian labor to properly harvest the thaw in the Arctic permafrost, which is opening up fertile marshlands, while banking upon the sparse geographical populace of this region.

The skeptics point to the fact that, facing a heightened geopolitical and naval rivalry in the IOR, India can hardly expend its limited resources, to make a dent in the Arctic, so to say. However, keeping in mind the humongous reduction in travel time between the East and the West, upon the gradual development of the NSR, the policy of exploiting China’s ‘Malacca Dilemma’, may prove to be futile in the long run. India, being a developing nation, is disproportionately under the noose of the climate change regime’s obligations, upon cutting back its greenhouse gas emissions. It is this policy arena, which may turn out to be a jewel, for India’s ambition of creating a niche for itself in the Arctic Council, by undertaking a sustained commitment towards the attainment of the SDGs, in relation to the ensuing ‘race to the Arctic’. We may hope, that under the pretext of such a magnanimous display of its soft power credentials, India may strategically pursue its own imminent resource needs, in relation to the Arctic commons.

References

1. Devikaa Nanda, “India’s Arctic Potential,” Observer Research Foundation, February 18, 2019, https://www.orfonline.org/research/indias-arctic-potential-48263/
2. Abhijnan Rej, “India Releases Draft Arctic Policy,” The Diplomat, January 5, 2021, https://thediplomat.com/2021/01/india-releases-draft-arctic-policy/

Debayan Ghatak

Intern, Asia in Global Affairs