India and the Abraham Accords 2022: Prospects and Opportunities.
Posted on : June 3, 2022Author : Ashish Singh
Understanding the Abraham Accords
Several studies have risen in the study area of foreign policy where in state and its leadership make decisions that can extend from individual and group up to coalition levels.[i] Studies have revealed the effect on choices that is determined through the approach to process the information and subsequent employment of their decision rules.[ii] In these spectrum of rational actor model of decision making, the formulation of foreign policy lies in existence of influential factors that explains and predict the foreign policy and its decision making process consisting of states that explicitly explains its rationality. The rational decision makers choose the alternative and sometime unconventional options, that provide the most preferred consequences with consistence, value-maximization, choice within specific constraints. [iii] The behavior of rational actors are assumed to vehemently employ the purposive action to display its preferential consistency and the goal to achieve maximum utility.[iv] To its core on view to study its intensity of propagation, scholars around the world have distinguished between “thin” rationality, the strategic pursuit for an ordered and specific preferences and “thick” rationality, assuming actors having some specific preferences. To clear, in politics, the preferences is typically perpetuation in office.[v]
Abraham Accords are one of those initiatives where its stake holders opted for the preferential alternative to achieve maximum value through its utilization assuming a preferential consistency which started with series of treaties in determining the normalization of diplomatic relation between Israel and other West Asian and Northern African nations duly facilitated by USA between August-December 2020. It will not only provide India a leverage on several accounts of its existential diplomatic operations in middle east but also open several opportunities were India had pessimistic presence. Indian prospects may also affect its own geo-political scenario in South Asia particularly towards its unfriendly neighbors. Since Israel had been one of the most friendly nations from middle east, the gradual transformation in approach towards Israel by gulf states would be appealing.
Israel-UAE relations.
A major ground breaking event undertook with both Israel-UAE signing an agreement in August 2022. Thus an Arab Gulf states have, thus, joined Egypt and Jordan which had their peace treaties with Israel in 1979 and 1994, respectively. Though UAE-Israel have never engaged in direct military warfare but UAE did participated in Arab League boycott against Israel since its foundation in 1948[vi]. Later within the span of five months, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco joined the league with Egypt and Jordan is making a peace deal with Israel.
The significance of deal lies in a shared interest with reference to the common threats posed by Iran’s presence in middle east. Like Turkey, which has diplomatic ties with Israel was against UAE having diplomatic ties with Israel, while Syria abstained from doing do despite of having no official relations with Israel. The step by Damascus is perceivably due to its closeness with Abu Dhabi which could aid in its reconstruction process and to include Damascus into a bloc of Arab capitals that stand against Turkey’s so-called “neo-Ottoman” foreign policy agenda at the same time it could also help Syria to establish relations with Israel in near future. Abu Dhabi seeks to use its influence to bring Syria closer to the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) states to keep Damascus away from Tehran, perhaps a favorable situation for Israel. Israel opened its diplomatic office in UAE in 2015[vii] and subsequently Mossad chief made several visits there. With that both countries jointly came together to fight against Corona Virus pandemic[viii].
As per the Israel agreed to hold on its plan for annexation of West Bank for the application of sovereignty[ix] with that both countries showed their interest in diversifying its economic cooperation and subsequent engagement to achieve this goal. The engagement of USA not only existed merely in its initiatives but it also agreed to sell advance warplanes to UAE[x] . Though this raise eyebrows for Israel and its security agencies assuming possible threats. But US and Israeli officials hold crucial meeting about the potential of Israel to defend itself.
Israel-Bahrain Relations.
Bahrain has emerged as the most vocally hospitable nations among signatory of Abraham Accords to establish friendly relations with the Jewish state. Though like UAE, there was a longtime quiet cooperation between Israel and Bahrain, the gradual cooperation in various areas has not only strengthen their diplomatic ties but it made Bahrain to come in support of Israel on several occasions. Like UAE, Israel and Bahrain announced a similar agreement in September 2020 after they signed a peace declaration with an intention to normalize diplomatic relations, negotiate a formal peace treaty and not to antagonize each other.
As said Bahrain defended Israel against Arab League in 2017 against their resolution to boycott the Jewish state. Later in 2020, an initiative by Bahrain holding “Peace to Prosperity” conference duly led by US administration was boycotted by Palestinian leaders. Bahrain understands the vitality of Israel in containing Iranian fronts in its nuclear warhead developments and ballistic missile program.
Complexities between Israel- Sudan relations.
Sudan and Israel came together to sign a normalization agreement in October 2020 though the agreement is more sophisticated in terms of its application as Sudan’s government is going through a transition to establish itself as a more democratic country. It need to repeal its democratic law that prohibits Sudan to establish ties with Israel. Democratic norms comes at the cost of viable opposition who in groups had forced Sudan to be more precautious in transition of government. But normalization agreement with Israel in Oct, 2020 has benefitted Sudan to remove itself from the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism by USA.[xi] On April 6, 2021, the Cabinet of Sudan approved legislation repealing a law from 1958 which had prohibited diplomatic and business relations with Israel[xii]
Israel-Morocco Relations.
Morocco announced a normalization agreement with Jewish State in December 2020[xiii], after it had quiet diplomatic relations with Israel prior to open doors of normalization[xiv]. This was partly because Morocco shares a long history of Jews who left morocco despite of genuine efforts made to protect Jewish History and welcome Moroccan Jews who visit the country. Morocco claims over disputed territory of Western Sahara has been recognized by USA particularly due to its decision to establish diplomatic relations with Israel[xv]. Though it is unclear whether Biden Administration will adopt the similar stance amid of controversies being attached to this decision.
Abraham Accord and the Palestinian approach.
The provisions of Abraham Accord are strongly condemned by Palestinian leaders. The Palestinian Authority declared the UAE-Israel agreement a total betrayal against the Palestinian rights and simultaneously attacked UAE[xvi]. Vehemently standing against the Abraham Accord, Hamas urged the Arab states to continue engaging in anti-normalization process and stop “serving the Zionist narrative”[xvii]. This led to wide criticism against the Palestinian leadership by former Saudi Ambassador to US who called it unprecedented and harsh against normalization processes[xviii]. Former Middle East envoy to the Middle East Dennis Ross wrote that the UAE’s move “should also signal to Palestinian that others are not going to wait for them to make peace with Israel”[xix]. Other influential Arab states such as Oman, Saudi Arabia are rumored to be considering normalization with Israel as well as Indonesia which constitute the largest Muslim’s population in their within any country’s political boundary, have shown interest .
Of Rhetoric and Reality.
Israel hosted its 2022 summit with diplomats from US and Arab countries with which it has normalized ties and are the existing stake holders in Abraham Accords. Hosting the foreign ministers of four Arab nations and the USA in a rapidly shifting position at Middle East, the meeting took place in resort in the southern Naqab (Negev) region near the tomb of David Ben-Gurion, Israel’s first prime minister. The ministers and the US secretary of State Antony Blinken pledge to include the key areas of energy, environment and security matter in cooperation deals and even bring others into the table of agreement.
Despite of ongoing occupation from Israel, which remained the central theme between Israel and Arabs for past 50 years, the Palestinian were not invited. But signals were laid for inclusion of Palestinian by the participants of summit in future. Meanwhile Jordan did not participated the summit despite of their normalized relations. Country’s King Abdullah visited Israeli’s occupied West bank for the solidarity towards the Palestinians.
Alliance against Iran.
The Abraham Accords summit of 2022 came in the backdrop of the ongoing initiative to renew the 2015 international nuclear deal with Iran. The agreement restricts Iran over its nuclear program in exchange of billions of dollars as a part of sanction relief. The representative expressed their concerns over possible Iranian threat across the region and the possible nuclear accord with Iran. Israel also opposed to the supposed move of the USA ready to make to get the deal done. Removing Iran’s revolutionary Guards from the list of foreign terror organizations by USA was opposed by Israel though USA’s state secretary clarified there are no decisions over fundamental proposition. Meanwhile Israeli prime minister also raised the recent attack on Saudi Arabia by Iranian supported Houtis.
But the details of the long negotiated deals solidified the daylight between Israel and US becomes ever more glaring and the differences too on different issues and that was Israel stance on Ukrainian crisis. Israel provided the humanitarian aid but its prime minister has not condemned Russian over its invasion on Ukraine. Out of a public wish to be a mediator, less public concern about the change on Russia’s role in Israel interest in Syria. Israeli foreign minister condemned the invasion and assured USA that it will not by-pass the sanction declared on Russia but there is not much evidence concerning this policy.
Exclusion of Palestinian Authority
As expected, Palestinian were the notable absentees form the summit. Meanwhile Biden Administration had urged Israel and Palestinian Authority to reduce the tension and create the environment for peace talks. But it had made it clear that it has no intentions to press the sides of either one of them to renew negotiations. Though Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett had opposed a Palestinian state and made it clear that Israel has no intention to restart peace talks. He stressed upon improving the economic conditions for the Palestinians to reduce poverty and maintain calm. Meanwhile the growing relations with gulf is supposing a great disappointment among Palestinians watching Arabs participating in summits and meetings and declared it a betrayal by Arab regimes towards Palestinians.
Abraham Accords and exploring the Indian prospects.
Indian diplomacy in middle east highlights its offers for a more political and diplomatic space in a balancing act in a view that it has to device for the protection of its economic and political interests amidst of various factions that has been the cornerstone in the region over the past few decades. The collaboration in West Asia adds a new dimension to India’s ‘Look West Policy’ which has reached to the excellent stands as compare to its earliest status. Simultaneously, Abraham Accords seems to be playing the crucial role in South Asia too. In South Asia, the accords would bind up Pakistan’s claims that it has been speaking vehemently since its existence, whether to follow the UAE’s step in giving up the Islamic cause of Palestine or standing in feud with Saudis over not taking up Kashmir case, Pakistan cannot afford to be another hostile Islamic country. Since there is a large possibility that the Palestinian quest would be further ignored, this may also create a rift among Shias and Sunnis in the region which may turn wide and violent. Saudis representing Sunnis and Iran being the face of Shia, have a long history of enmity. Even during the cold war, Saudis and Iran had instable relations for decades. The Sunni-Shia schism may also provoke violence between Muslims in Pakistan, Nigeria and Indonesia.
India recognized Israel only in 1950 but it was restricted only to consular relations due to geo-political factors along with sentiments of Indian Muslims for Palestinians that constrained India to establish full diplomatic relation as a newly independent state along with their recent history of partition and holocaust. Though in 1992, India developed full diplomatic relations with Israel under the prime minister P V Narshima Rao.
Economic viability and opportunities.
India’s interest in middle east lies in its geographical location and proximity to continents and countries in South Asia, China, Central Asia and Africa. The region of middle East is strategically important due to its enormous energy resources, trade route links to different parts of world. Accounting for over 34% of world production in oil, it places itself in the first spot with 45% of its crude oil exports and 48 % of proven reserves. For Gulf, Indian still provide the vibrant market, including hydrocarbons, despite debate over energy transition with reference to climate change. Similarly, India do provide a strong market for Saudis though they are curtailing their dependency on Oil. The potential of India in expansion of its market are critical to Saudi’s economic transformation plans inclusive of a strong component of political transformation, moving towards more inclusive and moderate form of Islam.
India’s energy and economic ties with UAE have also expanded significantly in recent years at the same time, UAE has been quietly mediating between India and Pakistan and facilitated the back-channel talks between two neighbours last year. The Abraham Accord would help in create a favorable ground to enhance more economic activities in the region which will create large scale of opportunities for Indian labour force. The region constitute a major chunk of total remittance to India. The more economic activities would come up with large no of industries get on ground that will surely create more jobs.
Along with business and trade, Agriculture sector was the key area of cooperation for which India and Israel came together in 1992 through a bilateral agreement. With the effect of Abraham Accords, India being one the largest food grain exporter with three-fourth of its population engaging in agricultural activities, would enable it to find more space in agricultural cooperation with middle east. India already had signed MoUs with Israel in the areas of R&D, innovation, water, agriculture and space in 2017 during the visit of Indian Prime Minister Modi to Israel. Simultaneously, In 2018 India and Israel signed agreement on cyber-security, Oil and Gas cooperation along with other semi-government agreements. The Abharam Accords 2022 ensures the India’s technological competence, money from the UAE and innovation from Israel would boost the cooperation deals among these countries.
In recent years, there had been high level exchanges in areas of trade, agriculture, science and technology and security had been initiated since the since agreements of Abraham Accords was signed between Israel and other Gulf-States. Similarly, Jaishankar and Lapid had a bilateral meeting in 2021 ended with an agreement to re-launch a Free-Trade Agreement.
The USA, and recent Russian entry in past decades in the region had motivated the Chinese admission into the region who indicated to play a larger role in the region with its closeness with both UAE, Israel and increasingly Saudi Arabia. India should make its moves faster before this market and extended neighborhood comes under the sphere of direct Chinese influence. The advantages of successful summit every year open up the doors for enormous opportunities in this area and right time from Indian point of view to have its stronger footprints to be the preferred source of food products, pharmaceuticals, gem and jewelry, light engineering items along with labour force as previously said. Indians are the biggest stakeholders in Dubai’s real estate, tourism, Free Economic Zones. Therefore, in this evolving scenario, there are great scopes for Indian to take advantage of profitable trilateral synergy established through Abraham Accords.
Security and Defense.
India should take advantage of this unexpected opportunity to give itself a higher role in the region along with its strategic plot. The first step from the Indian side is to ramp up its defense and security relations with UAE. India already had a very strong defense relations with Israel which sign the completion of 30 years their diplomatic relations in 2022. In 2020, the visit by Indian Air Force Chief, Air Chief Marshall RK Bhadauria, to Israel offers a window as how New Delhi is taking advantage of Abraham Accords deals signed between Israel and consortium of Arab States led by UAE. In 2020, Indian Army Chief, Gen. MM Narvane became the first ever army chief to visit Saudi Arab and UAE.
Pakistan had a strategic edge over India with Taliban’s returning to power in Kabul. New Delhi is now keen to take advantage of the Abraham Accords which had facilitated India a flexibility to expand its strategic partnership with Israel as well as improve its ties with UAE and other nation states like Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain. At the time intelligence agencies of India and Pakistan had tussle for a greater clout in UAE and Gulf in recent time, Indian had successfully forced out Pakistan’s ISI to relocate its capacity house from Dubai to Turkey, whose president Erdogan assert the claim to be the face of Islamic world. Despite of efforts being made to establish relation between India and Turkey, Turkish President Erdogan’s hostility towards India had made several setbacks. Erdogan has been supportive to Pakistan’s case over Kashmir after India changed its status-quo in August 2019 along with its opposition to India’s entry into the Nuclear Supplier Group.
The Turkish quest for a regional dominance in the region has also been crucial for India in limelight of Abraham Accords to open gates for eastern Mediterranean to Greece and Cyprus. The recent exploration of hydrocarbons in Mediterranean sea and Turkish aspiration for regional dominance has drawn Greece-UAE closer. Greece has earlier looked towards Indian for security cooperation. The visit of S Jaishankar to Athens in June 2021, begun the talk for defense exchanges. Greece’s European ally like France, having big stake in Mediterranean, along with Arab Gulf have taken active interest in countering Turkey’s regional ambitions. Erdogan’s support to Muslim Brotherhood, who seek to change the existing political order in Egypt have deeply angered the governments of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE going favorable for India in contemporary era.
Defense cooperation might increase with India, as a rising defense equipment exporter, along with Israel, having the advance defense technology together might contain the Chinese defense exports in the region. Importantly, India can use its good offices to ensure that any future deal on a regional security framework gives adequate space to Iran, which may be weak but not so weak that it cannot be a hugely disruptive power if it chooses so. An adequate initiative has been taken to normalize between Iran and Israel, with whom India has promising relations. Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar’s back to back visit to Tehran in July and August, 2021followed by Iran’s Army Chief Brig. General Amir Hatami’s visit to New Delhi highlights the rejuvenation of strategic cooperation despite of multiple obstacles in execution of deals due to US’s sanction over Tehran and the proxy war between US ally Saudi and Iran in Yemen, Syria and beyond, was perhaps one among those initiative to establish peace between them. The virtual meeting between Jaishankar, Lapid, Zayed and Blinken was second to another quadrilateral participation with India and USA along with Japan and Australia, primarily built as a group of democracies to counter the expansionist China in the Indo-pacific region.
India could play a pivot role in striking balance between the Shai-Sunnis, between Persia and Arab, a necessary ground for the stability to any sustainable peace. At the same time Abraham Accords also open the doors for Muslims around the world including India to visit Al-Aqsa Mosque at Jerusalem, their third holiest site in Islam. A strong commitment to Palestine cause, common views on major developments in international scenario to strengthen economic and commercial relations between Arabs and Israel would help India to successfully execute its diplomacy by and large. That shows India has a stronger multifaceted and growing socio-economic engagements with Gulf countries due to its adaptation of de-hyphenation policy while dealing with Israel. The opportunities seem to be opening more doors for New Delhi as its emergence for the west of the Subcontinent are momentous to the recently emerged circumstances in the East. Similarly, the approach of India towards Indo-Pacific could prompt India’s engagement with its extended neighbor to the middle east.
Ashish Singh
Adjunct Researcher
Asia in Global Affairs
References
[i] Hermann, M. (2001). How decision units shape foreign policy: A theoretical framework. International Studies Review, 3(2), 47–82
[ii] Mintz, A., & Geva, N. (1997). The poliheuristic theory of foreign policy decision making. In N. Geva & A. Mintz (Eds.), Decision making on war and peace: The cognitive-rational debate (pp. 81–101). Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.
[iii] Allison, G. (1971). Essence of decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. Boston: Little, Brown.
[iv] MacDonald, P. (2003). Useful fiction or miracle maker: The competing epistemological foundations of rational choice theory. American Political Science Review, 97(4), 551–565.
[v] Ferejohn, J. (1991). Rationality and interpretation: Parliamentary elections in early Stuart England. In K. Monroe (Ed.), The economic approach to politics. New York: HarperCollins.
[vi] Martin A. Weiss, Arab League Boycott of Israel, Federation of American Scientists, August 25, 2017, at
https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33961.pdf
[vii] John Reed and Simeon Kerr, “Israel to open diplomatic mission in UAE”, Financial Times, November 27, 2015, at
https://www.ft.com/content/7b1193b8-94f1-11e5-b190-291e94b77c8f
[viii] TOI Staff, “Mossad chief meets with UAE security head in Abu Dhabi, Times of Israel”, Times of Israel, August 18, 2020, at https://www.timesofisrael.com/mossad-chief-meets-with-uae-security-in-abu-dhabi/
[ix] Jacob Magid, UAE ambassador: ‘Abraham Accords were about preventing annexation’, Times of Israel, 2
February 2021, at https://www.timesofisrael.com/uae-ambassador-abraham-accords-were-about-preventingannexation/
[x] Aaron Mehta and Joe Gould, “Just hours before Biden’s inauguration, the UAE and US come to a deal on F-35 sales”, Defense News, January 20, 2021, at https://www.defensenews.com/global/mideastafrica/2021/01/20/just-hours-before-bidens-inauguration-the-uae-and-us-come-to-a-deal-on-f-35-sales/
[xi] “Sudan formally recognizes Israel in U.S.-brokered deal”. NBC News.
[xii] “Sudan’s cabinet votes to repeal Israel boycott law”. www.aljazeera.com. Retrieved 2021-04-07.
[xiii] Avie Schneider, “Morocco Becomes Latest Arab Country To Normalize Ties With Israel”, NPR, December 10,
2020, at https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-tieswith-israel
[xiv] Elie Podeh and Einat Levi, “Israel and Morocco: Major Potential for Warm Peace”, Morocco World News,
December 17, 2020 at https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2020/12/328978/israel-and-morocco-majorpotential-for-warm-peace/
[xv] Toms Dumpis, FM: US Western Sahara Recognition a Step Towards ‘Lasting Stability’, Morocco World News,
February 4, 2021 at https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2021/02/334086/fm-us-western-sahara-recognition-astep-towards-lasting-stability/
[xvi] Oliver Holmes, Hazem Balousha, Michael Safi, and Bethan McKernan, “’We feel betrayed’: Palestinians fear cost
of Arab states’ deals with Israel”, The Guardian, September 22, 2020 at
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/22/we-feel-betrayed-palestinians-fear-cost-of-arab-states-dealswith-israel
[xvii] Al Jazeera English Staff, “How the world reacted to UAE, Israel normalising diplomatic ties”, Al Jazeera English,
August 15, 2020 at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/8/15/how-the-world-reacted-to-uae-israelnormalising-diplomatic-ties
[xviii] Reuters Staff, “Saudi former intelligence chief slams Palestinian leadership’s criticism of UAE-Israel deal”, Reuters,
October 5, 2020 at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-gulf-saudi/saudi-former-intelligence-chief-slamspalestinian-leaderships-criticism-of-uae-israel-deal-idUSKBN26Q33U
[xix] Joyce Karam and Willy Lowry, “UAE ties with Israel show how region is changing, former US envoy says”,
National News, September 14, 2020 at https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/mena/uae-ties-with-israel-showhow-region-is-changing-former-us-envoy-says-1.1077731
Leave a Reply