India and the Abraham Accord

2020 has been the year of the unexpected, and the announcement made by President Trump on the 13th of August goes well with the theme. The official normalization of relations between Israel and UAE – formally called the Abraham Accord – is one of the most significant developments for the Middle East as well as for the broader international arena. The announcement has received mixed and mostly positive response. India has tactfully responded by welcoming the move while also reiterating its commitment to the Palestinian cause.

About The Deal

While the agreement itself was rather unexpected for many states, there had been several indications in recent years of a possible thaw in bilateral relations between Israel and UAE. Two of the most significant such indications in the past few years are (i) the establishment of an Israeli diplomatic mission in UAE in 2015 for representation at IRENA; and (ii) a joint aerial drill by Emirati and Israeli jets in Greece. Over the years, the two countries have also improved their military and technology cooperation and are reported to have had confidential meetings to discuss their strategies towards Iran. 2019 onwards some more concrete signals were seen. UAE officials made a statement in November 2019 regarding opening up the country for Israeli tourists. In July 2020, we saw the announcement of bilateral cooperation for developing a COVID-19 vaccine. In this light, Emirati-Israeli cooperation was an ‘open secret’ that is now unveiled. UAE is the third Arab country, after Egypt and Jordan, and the first Gulf country to conclude such an agreement with Israel.

Following normalization, the two countries will collaborate in the areas of energy, education, healthcare, trade, and security. They will also establish direct flights and embassies. The key aspect of this agreement is that it was signed on the condition of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu dropping his plan of further annexation of Palestinian lands; interestingly, Israel claims ‘(temporary) suspension’ while UAE suggests ‘cancellation’ of the plan. Further details of the agreement are awaited.

The deal was officially announced by President Trump, thereby indicating that it took place under the aegis, if not the insistence, of the United States. Both Israel and the UAE are strong allies of the USA and have particularly benefited from President Trump’s policies. Analysts have pointed out that facilitating this agreement provides President Trump a ‘much needed respite’ after criticisms of his controversial ‘Middle East Peace Plan’ and grievances about his mismanagement of the pandemic in the USA. It also highlights his role in making peace in the Middle East. This comes in the face of higher opinion poll ratings for opponent Joe Biden, the Presidential candidate of the Democrat Party. However, it may be premature to assume that a foreign policy decision like this would impact the electoral preference of any significant number of Americans. Instead, it should be viewed in light of President Trump’s efforts to create a ‘legacy’ in the Middle East – by progressively withdrawing troops from the region, introducing the ‘Middle East Peace Plan’, and now announcing this agreement. It would also be erroneous to assume that this agreement is entirely to create a united front against Iran – even though that might be a consequence of the agreement – as the UAE has in the past attempted to mitigate its relations with Iran. For instance, in the summer of 2019, UAE and Iran held two meetings to assuage the situation after UAE suffered two tanker attacks off the coast of Fujairah.

Source: https://ge.usembassy.gov/trump-brokers-historic-israel-uae-deal-for-peace-and-prosperity/

International Response

This move has been well-received on the global level, barring some exceptions. India, Egypt, China, USA (including Democrat Joe Biden), and the EU have supported the move. On the other hand, Kuwait, Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan have either criticized the move or have merely acknowledged it – this has primarily been on grounds of the ‘betrayal’ of the Palestinian cause by UAE but is supplemented by other vested interests in each case.

Within Israel, this move has received mixed response. While some have hailed the move as a remarkable attempt by Prime Minister Netanyahu to establish peace in the region, most others – and especially the Israeli right and far-right wings – have criticized the decision to suspend the annexation of Palestinian lands. He has assuaged these sections by reiterating that the plan has been suspended not discarded. It is also understood that such a partnership is important for Israel as it severely lacks friendly neighbors in the region.

In the Gulf, Oman, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia (after an oddly long period of silence) welcomed the move. The most significant reaction, of course, has come from Palestine, where the government and masses alike have criticized the agreement and called it a betrayal by their Arab ally UAE. They also insist that the UAE claim, that stopping further annexation was a precondition for this agreement, holds no value as Prime Minister Netanyahu clarified that he has only suspended/postponed the annexation. However, Palestinian authorities could possibly find a way here to negotiate with Israel with the backing of UAE – as now UAE is not just an ally of Palestine, but it also holds some negotiating power with Israel.

India – Response and Opportunity

India’s official response to this development has been positive yet cautious. It was welcomed in the statement by the Ministry of External Affairs, calling it a move towards peace in India’s ‘extended neighbourhood’, i.e. West Asia. However, the statement also reiterated India’s commitment towards a viable two-state solution for Palestine. Thus, India balanced its support for its ‘strategic partners’ in this journey with its traditional support for the Palestinian cause. Herein lie two opportunities for India. One, it can urge UAE and Israel – both strong partners of India – to jointly work with Palestinians towards a viable two-state solution. Second, it can join hands with the two countries for strong trilateral cooperation against international terrorism. Combating international terrorism has been a top priority for the Indian government in recent years, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has repeatedly reached out to his counterparts globally for cooperation on the same. In fact, in July 2018 UAE and India had jointly announced measures to tackle cross-border and global terrorism. Similarly, in February 2019, Israel offered its unconditional help to India for defending itself against terrorism. Besides benefitting from the inevitable regional prosperity and peace that will emerge from the normalization of ties between Israel and UAE, India also has the opportunity to ramp up its counter-terrorism cooperation with the two states in a trilateral manner. It would do well to act in a timely manner.

Kasturi Misra

Guest Author