Implications of US talks with the Taliban on India and the wider region

Talks between US and Afghan Taliban slated for this week has been postponed as the Taliban alleged that some members of the negotiating team could not travel to Pakistan for the meeting due to sanctions imposed by America and the UN. This meeting, was a follow up of the talks under the Doha Format between US and Taliban officials in Qatar that had focussed on a plan for the withdrawal of foreign forces and a guarantee that Afghanistan would not be used for hostile acts against the US and its allies. The talks have now been rescheduled to 25 February in Doha.

A dialogue process with Washington aimed at securing a timetable for the withdrawal of all US and NATO forces from Afghanistan have been on-going since the Obama administration but they have gained special significance under the Trump administration. Currently the United States is holding talks with Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan, under what is known as the Doha format, as the Trump administration seeks to further reduce US involvement in that country. These talks have implications not only for neighbouring countries but also for India, the wider region and most significantly for reducing global terrorism.

The 17 year long war has not achieved the stated aim of completely militarily defeating the Taliban. Large parts of Afghanistan are under Taliban control where government writ is non-existent. The Taliban impose their authority in these areas through fear and coercion and sometimes through popular support. It is now largely accepted by the United States and its allies that the war in Afghanistan can never be completely won. The real question remains whether this is the same Taliban which the United States overthrew from power in 2001 or have they moved ideologically in their positions in certain respects. This is the key question which will determine the success or the failure of the talks. The Taliban’s political representatives are based in the capital of Qatar, Doha and this is where the talks have taken place so far. Not all factions of the Taliban are supportive of the talks and there are differences between the political and military branches as well.

The Afghan people are tired of this war and they finally want some peace in their country. But the question remains, “peace at what price?” If the price to be paid is the reversal of all the progress made in the last 17 years, is it worth it? Afghanistan today is a different country than it was 17 years ago. This has to be recognized. Women and minorities who have won their hard fought rights through all these years, will not be willing to give them up easily. A whole generation has grown up in Afghanistan without any memory of the civil war or the Taliban rule. The talks are not going to be easy. If the Taliban do finally return to the government they have to moderate their stance. But the people who are opposed to their rehabilitation, will also have to make some compromises. Also the major stakeholders in Afghanistan need to have some kind of place in the talks. These include the women and the minorities. Otherwise the chances of the success of these talks are very low.

Neighbouring countries like Iran and Pakistan should not use this opportunity to play politics in Afghanistan. The talks cannot be hurried or forced upon the Afghan people. All the outstanding issues have to be resolved. Countries like India also need to get themselves involved in the process. India needs to establish contacts with the Taliban who are involved in the talks. This is a chance for India to finally remove the Taliban from Pakistani control. India can become more involved in an Afghanistan which is not insurgency wrecked by Pakistani backed proxies.

Reflective of this was the presence, for the first time, of two former Indian diplomats to negotiations that included the Taliban. Amar Sinha, India’s former Ambassador to Kabul and T.C. A. Raghavan former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan represented New Delhi in Moscow at negotiations on Afghanistan at the ‘Moscow format’ talks in November 2018. The participation ‘at a non-official level’ to the talks that included a high level delegation from the Taliban as well as a delegation of Afghanistan’s High Peace Council along with twelve other countries marked the first time that an Indian delegation was present at a table with Taliban representatives based in Doha. Analysts have noted this to be a significant departure from a position where India declined to be part of any negotiation that included the Taliban. While this was partly a decision arrived at after discussions with the Afghan government it was also substantially influenced by the fact that the US withdrawal would leave a significant vacuum in the region.

The possibility of greater regional instability would mean that the United States should ensure that the talks are not an excuse for ending their involvement in Afghanistan, but instead to achieve lasting peace in this country. If instability returns to Afghanistan or hard line Taliban elements gain power, then the country could once again become a hub of international terrorism. The Taliban need to completely dissociate themselves from Al Qaeda and other foreign fighters as a precondition. They have to prove that they are not under the control of any foreign power like the Pakistanis, but rather are Afghan nationalists. Only then will they start to regain some credibility among the Afghan people. Certain issues cannot be compromised like women’s education, employment and minority rights. The international community must ensure that these guidelines are followed. Hard line Islamic law cannot once again be imposed on the Afghan people and the Taliban will have to learn to work in a democratic setup with other political parties. They must have a political platform like any other party to be seen as legitimate. This is how insurgencies in most parts of the world has ended. Talks might not mean the end of conflict as many groups who do not accept these talks might continue fighting. But any successful talks will still be a major progress.

With the threat of insurgency significantly reduced, greater foreign investment could finally enter Afghanistan. More Afghans will be enticed to return back to their country. There will be less need for the presence of foreign troops. Groups like ISIS in Khorasan which are also fighting the Taliban will continue to pose a threat. These groups can never be included in any talks. So they have to be defeated militarily. Russia is playing a major role in the talks. But so will China. India has to be in the picture in between all these countries. No one has a greater stakes in the talks than the Afghan people themselves. So for their sake the talks need to succeed.

All countries will eventually benefit from the successful conclusion of the talks. There is a possibility that Pakistan-Afghanistan relations will finally normalize and there is hope that the Taliban will participate in the economic development of the country instead of fighting an endless war. Afghanistan can once again realize its true potential if these talks succeed. It can once again become a trading hub connecting Central Asia, West Asia and South Asia.

Anirban Sen

Adjunct Researcher, AGA

24.02.2019