Evaluating chances of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the broader context of the Ukraine-Russia War

Abstract:  In the background of the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, many defence experts have anticipated the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. A good set of reasons that both support and negate such a concern exist. The article attempts to delve into  the multiple veiwpoints

While the world is closely watching what is unfolding in Eastern Europe with Russia attempting a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine, in Eastern Asia, another country is wondering whether it would be facing a similar situation vis a vis China in Taiwan. While China considers Taiwan to be a province that has broken away from mainland China with the former publicly announcing that one day it would bring about unification, on the other hand, Taiwan positions itself as a Sovereign state. In the broader context of the Ukraine-Russia war, many political scientists and military experts are weighing out the possibility of China invading Taiwan in the near future.

It is interesting to notice the positions both countries have maintained in the ongoing war. Taiwan has joined other Western countries when it comes to imposing global sanctions against Russia. This includes barring Russia access from SWIFT, tech companies including ASUS and semiconductor manufacturing giant TMSC halting shipments to Russia. Also, solidarity rallies for Ukraine in Taiwan have sort of become a daily affair, prominent Taiwanese politicians have also been seen leading them. On the other hand, while recognising Ukraine’s sovereignty, China has also gone ahead and said that Russia’s security concerns are legitimate. At the same time, China refused to join in on sanctions against Russia and has also consistently abstained in resolutions that condemn Russia’s actions in the United Nations. In the light of these contrasting philosophies, one must assess how likely it is that China might militarily invade Taiwan.

It has become alomost a regular trend for Chinese warplanes to enter Taiwan’s air defence zone. 2021 witnessed 900 such planes entering Taiwan’s airspace. In September, October and November China sent 117, 200, and 159 military aircraft respectively across the island of Taiwan’s self-proclaimed southwest air defence identification zone. These incursions happened on a daily basis and were essentially non-stop. 2021 saw a 60 per cent increase of incursions in Taiwan’s airspace by Chinese warplanes when compared with 2020 which saw 380 such incursions. In fact, the incursions experienced in 2020 itself were the highest ever since 1996 which increases the possibility of a conflict emerging. Such air incursions have continued well into 2022 as well. The incursions have involved the use of Chinese J-16 fighter jets, Y-8 anti-submarine warfare aircraft and KJ-500 early warning aircraft.

In recent months, top political functionaries in China, including President Xi Jinping have made statements that challenge the notion of Taiwan existing as an independent state. In July 2021, at a public event in Beijing that celebrated the 100th anniversary of the founding of Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping vowed to bring about the reunification of Taiwan with Mainland China on the basis of the one-China principle and the 1992 consensus. In an aggressive tone, he also talked about destroying attempts that aim toward formal independence of Taiwan. Then, in October 2021, which marked the 110th anniversary of the revolution that overthrew the last imperial dynasty of China in 1911, in a less belligerent tone, Xi Jinping once again reiterated that the unification of Taiwan with the Chinese mainland in a peaceful manner is both in China as well as Taiwan’s overall interests.

In the light of these developments, the chances of a military invasion being undertaken by China do not seem that unlikely. Yet, it is very difficult for China to undertake this military invasion. China’s military would hesitate to unilaterally invade Taiwan since it knows that the latter has the military backing of the United States. While a formal defence alliance does not exist between the United States and Taiwan, multiple administrations, ranging across presidencies through the decades have publicly supported Taiwan against China’s military adventurism. Also, Taiwan has been a regular purchaser of US weapons and arms. The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) signed between the United States and Taiwan in no way binds the US to Taiwan militarily, the consensus in Washington is that regardless, the US is duty-bound to protect Taiwan from military aggression. It is in this context that China would hesitate to act impulsively against Taiwan, in the fear of irking the world’s most powerful military.

Simultaneously, the People’s Liberation Army has been closely looking at Russia’s military campaign and the fruits their efforts have reaped so far. So far, the Russian army, even as it is embroiled in a war that has been going since over a month has had no significant military achievements and in many ways is stuck in a stalemate. This could dissuade China from making any moves against Taiwan as it closely draws lessons from the military campaigns of major powers as it itself hasn’t fought a war since 1979. Even from a geographical standpoint, it is easier to invade Ukraine for Russia as compared to Taiwan since Ukraine shares an extended land border with Russia whereas Taiwan is an island and it requires great coordination on the part of the Chinese armed, naval and air forces to undertake a successful invasion.

Moreover, the Chinese economy has been experiencing unstable growth rates, as a result of which, it is wary of inviting economic sanctions. Major countries and global financial situations would certainly impose sanctions on China if it militarily provokes Taiwan. At the same time, the Chinese economy is highly dependent on the SWIFT payment system for international banking and financial transactions. China cannot afford to get cut off from it for any military misadventure. Russian banks have already been cut off from SWIFT by the United States and European Union and its economy has been placed under heavy economic sanctions.

While a good set of reasons exist as to why China could possibly invade Taiwan, at the same time, there are many reasons as to why such a situation would not possibly occur. Yet, there is no shrivel of doubt that the unease that exists between the two countries is going to mitigate anytime soon.

References

China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine. (2022). United States Institute of Peace. https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/03/china-not-russia-taiwan-not-ukraine

Palmer, J. (2021, October 6). Why China Is Flying Jets Near Taiwan. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/06/china-taiwan-plane-intrusions-military/

Sacks, D. (2021, July 6). What Xi Jinping’s Major Speech Means For Taiwan. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/blog/what-xi-jinpings-major-speech-means-taiwan

Taiwan Watches the Ukraine Invasion and Asks: Are We Ready? (2022, March 16). The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/taiwan-watches-the-ukraine-invasion-and-asks-are-we-ready/

Abhinav Nath Jha

Intern, Asia in Global Affairs