Duterte’s China dilemma and South China Sea

The Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has recently warned Beijing to stay away from the disputed Paga-Asa Island of the ‘West Philippines Sea’,The Filipino name for South China Sea, after the Philippine military reported the ‘intrusion’ of the Chinese coast guard and fishing vessels near the Philippine-held island. Meanwhile United States and the Philippines will be holding the Balikatan naval exercise. The government of Manila cannot ignore it’s sovereignty claim over the South China Sea islands.Thus when in need for Chinese investment and cognizant of the inability to take on growingly powerful China, South China Sea puts Duterte in dilemma over relation with Beijing.

Since elected President in 2016, Rodrigo Duterte attempted to overhaul Manila’s China policy by overturning the traditional anti-China policy of the Philippines and down playing the International Court’s 2016 verdict invalidating China’s sovereignty claim over the South China Sea.He even asked China to make his country a Chinese province, although in jest.The Filipino President was inclined to develop cordial relations with China from day one since he prioritized the internal affairs of the Philippines, mainly fighting the ‘drug abusers’ and the Islamist militants of the south over the external affairs.

During the election campaign Duterte had pledged to kill tens of thousands of criminals. After assuming power, he unleashed war against drug traffickers and abusers of the country. Up to December 2018, 5000 lives were lost in President’s Duterie’s ‘drug wars’ while the human rights groups claim the number to be as high as 20,000 and above since many deaths have gone undocumented. Apart from the drug menace, there is the insurgency in Muslim-majority Mindanao province of the south. It took an ugly turn when the ISIL(Islamic State Of Syria and Iraq) inspired militants seized the city of Marawi in May 2017 and was ultimately ‘liberated’ by the government forces in October although the fear of it’s resurgence still exists.

The economic development of the regions deserving it the most, especially his home province of Mindanao, is Duterte’s priority. For this he needed investments. Since his ‘drug wars’ earned him immense disgrace, especially in the West, China, holding the policy of strict non-interference and promoting economic engagement, was a natural choice. Davao, the home town of Duterte drew maximum attention in China-Philippines relations in 2018 with proposed infrastructure, projects and investments, direct flights, and the opening of a Chinese Consulate in the city. China topped the list of foreign investors in the Philippines in 2018 with investment worth $930 million. Duterte’s focus was economic development of his country and he found China to be a helping hand which he could not get from the West given his questionable internal policies.

In this situation it was not prudent for Duterte to promote acrimony with China over the South China Sea territorial dispute even when his country won the case against China in the International Court in 2016. Besides, Duterte was intelligent enough to understand his country’s limited ability to confront China and gave priority to managing internal challenges instead. Duterte’s pro-China stance was reflected even in the ASEAN under the Philippines chairmanship when the term “serious concern” over South China Sea dispute was removed from the final chairman’s statement after the conclusion of the summit in 2017. These words reportedly had appeared in previous ASEAN pronouncements. Duterte’s soft approach towards China on maritime dispute did gain the Filipino fishermen right to fish near the China-held Scarborough shoal after the meeting between Chinese President Zi Jin Ping and Duterte is 2016.

However, China disappointed Duterte. She reneged over her economic commitments to the Philippines. As of November 2018 Beijing promised Manila 10 big-ticket infrastructure projects but only one has moved toward implementation. Of 75 infrastructure projects proposed by Duterte yearmarked for the Chinese investment only 3 got Chinese funding. During Chinese President Zi Jin Ping’s visit  to the Philippines in late 2018, 29 agreements were concluded but very few of them had anything to do with major implementation of infrastructure projects. Besides, there is growing anti-China feelings in the Philippines demonstrated in public protests centring Sino-Philippines trade agreements on oil and gas developments in South China Sea last year. According to a survey, 72 per cent of the Filipinos want their country to take control of disputed territories in the South China Sea while for the Chinese Filipino minority in the Philippines, there are fears that the wave of anti-China sentiment threatens to spill over into anti-Chinese sentiment. Also the Chinese migration to the Philippines, some entering as pluralists and later converting their visa’s to work permits, hold potentials to trigger strong anti-China sentiments eventually and the South China Sea dispute is the ideal fodder for it. There is also pressure from the Philippines armed forces who do not approve the pro-China stand of President Duterte amidst the growing expansionist policy of Beijing in South China Sea. It is to be remembered here that the Philippines armed forces have traditionally allied with the US and have been suspicious of Chinese intentions. Presumably, this is the reason that despite his dislike for the US, President Duterte could not annul the annual military exercise with the US.

To conclude, the South China Sea has defeated Duterte’s foreign policy objective to maintain cordial relations with China since the alternative is justifiably costly for the Philippines. President  Duterte had prioritized internal economic development and crushing militancy over duelling with China on sovereignty disputing South China Sea. Besides, he expected China to help in his economic mission. However, South China Sea dispute is too serious an issue to ignore. Moreover, the Philippine military is more concerned with the growing Chinese assertiveness in the troubled maritime zone which is putting Duterte in a dilemma about handling China affair. He cannot ignore either the public sentiment or the military whose has traditionally been vary about China. And with China getting more assertive in South China Sea President Duterte’s dilemma is sure to grow.

Subhadeep Bhattacharya

21/04/2019