A VACCINE AGAINST MILITARY COUPS?

Democracy took a backseat in Myanmar, where rampant electoral fraudulence at the 2020 elections was posited as a pretext for declaring a constitutional emergency by the state military on Monday, 1 February. Such a political predicament would entail the cessation of parliamentary existence with a concomitant centralisation of power in the hands of the Commander in Chief, Min Aung Hlaing.

The rationale behind such an orchestrated usurpation of power needs further interrogation. While no concrete evidence vindicates the allegation of voter fraud, the towering ambitions of Min Aung Hlaing to assume presidency cannot be brushed under the carpet. The dismal performance of the military-backed political outfit, the Union Solidarity and Development Party, was a watershed moment in this regard, which had reduced his ambitions to a pipe dream.

The hasty proceedings can further be attested to the fact that the law required him to retire from his military rank at the age of 65, this year. A cloud of uncertainty, is thus pervasive regarding whether he would demit from his position, or the law be amended accordingly to give currency to his political intent.

But what is certain, without a shred of doubt is that the history of independent Myanmar is replete with such unfortunate instances of military coups. The failure of this country to foster a sound democratic ethos, would require an analytical investigation of the paramountcy of the Myanmar military over the decades, leading to, what scholar Sean Turnell,calls the “authoritarian trap”.

The quotidian practice of instrumentalizing repression and brutality, has remained the routine path tread on by the military regime of Myanmar to muzzle dissent. The militarily-motivated legal judgements, pronouncing lengthy sentences of incarceration against any political adversary, remain a testimony to the shambolic nature of the judiciary. Having malevolently usurped the education apparatus, the military honchos have reduced it to an instrument of indoctrination, adulating a rich civilizational past of Myanmar, and the domineering role of the military in it. Needless to say, press freedom is a chimera.

The military has always been at the forefront, to proclaim itself as the exclusive and all-powerful custodian of the unity of the nation. Though the country, was fraught with a multitude of ethnic and communist insurrections, spanning the period immediately after its independence in 1948, the recession of the same has done little to peter out the hyper-nationalistic rhetoric of the army.

Over the years, though the maladroit handling of Myanmar by the military has ensured that an energy-rich country backslide into becoming one of the poorest nation-states of Southeast Asia with discouraging economic and social indicators (per capita GDP of Myanmar was around $700 in 2010; while the Foreign Policy/Fund for Peace ascertained that Myanmar had one of the highest risks in Asia for being a failed state, only behind Afghanistan and Pakistan), it has not deterred certain corrupt coteries, from making disproportionate fortunes, with regard to a largely pauperized society.

This unscrupulous cabal of corporate cronies, besides sharing certain other commonalities, are bound by their proximity and obeisance to the military premiers, to secure a host of concessions, and thereby engage commercially, in an otherwise economically constrictive ecosystem. Such a nexus between the military and the corporate oligarchs, is one of the conspicuous manifestations of the patrimonial nature of the state.

Despite, a moderately marginalized civil society presence, the non-state actors have never had  much leeway to critique the military. They have remained overburdened with herculean tasks like education, healthcare or poverty redressal, which normally fall within the ambit of the state.

Be that as it may, the de facto civilian leader of the state, Aung San Suu Kyi, despite garnering a popular mandate, did little to ameliorate her citizens, from the brutalities of the army, even silently condoning their barbarism at times, especially in the wake of the Rohingya crisis. While she comprehensively failed in side-lining the army to reconstruct a deep-rooted democratic culture, whether it was because of her burgeoning role in her party (National League for Democracy), may pique one’s curiosity.

Apart from a COVID-19 mismanagement, that this coup might unleash, it has also the potential to stoke ethnic tensions amongst the powerless minorities, further fracturing a country bedevilled with grave conflicts.

Amidst such a constitutional crisis of immense magnitude, the Chinese influence cannot be glossed over. A close affinity between the Chinese Communist Party and Myanmar military has been well documented over the decades, and hence the closed door meet between Chinese emissary, Wang Yi and Min Aung Hlaing last month, has gained renewed attention. Despite cordial ties between Sung Kyi and China, one may posit that a democratic government, might have been inimical to any Chinese long haul, more so in the wake of its plummeting popularity in Myanmar.

The Myanmar problem may prove to be the litmus test for the newly established Joe Biden administration, to assess whether his dispensation can outflank China in their home turf. Biden was quick to castigate the coup as a “direct assault” on democracy and the rule of law, and has been unswerving in his commitment of holding answerable, the clique which has upended Myanmar’s democratic transition.

Though analysts have argued, that Biden cannot do much beyond imposing sanctions on the chargeable, highlighting the finitude of his diplomatic manoeuvres, the crisis may be transfigured into an effective launchpad for USA to refurbish its credentials as the global guardian of democracy, especially after the Capitol Building siege.

Having fostered a triad of geostrategic endeavours with Myanmar in the recent past, including the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, Kaladan multi-modal transit transport network, as well as Special Economic Zone at the Sittwe port, India might abstain from an explicit denouncement of the coup, but should rather play the waiting game, holding its cards to its chest.

As we brace ourselves to be a witness to one of the largest mass inoculation-drives the world has ever seen, the citizens of this South East Asian country would not mind a vaccine against the relapsing military coups as well.

References

1. Turnell, Sean (2011).“MYANMAR’S FIFTY-YEAR AUTHORITARIAN TRAP”. In Journal of International Affairs. Volume 65, No 1. (FALL/WINTER, 2011). Pp 79-92.

2. Kurlantzick, Joshua (2021). “Myanmar’s Coup: The Aftershocks”. In Council on Foreign Relations. February 1, 2021. ( https://www.cfr.org/blog/myanmars-coup-aftershocks).

3. Crouch, Melissa (2021). “The power and ambition behind Myanmar’s coup”. In The Sydney Morning Herald. February 2, 2021. (https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-power-and-ambition-behind-myanmar-s-coup-20210202-p56yor.html).

4. Bhattacharjee, Joyeeta (2021). “Coup is a setback to Myanmar’s unique experiment with democracy”. InThe Indian Express. February 3, 2021. (https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/derailment-in-neighbourhood-7171976/).

Ratnadeep Maitra

Intern, Asia in Global Affairs