A Troubled Future Awaits the Iran Nuclear Deal

While President Trump seems to be bent on unravelling JCPOA, his predecessor’s ‘foreign policy legacy,’ his own foreign policy team is at pains to build a case that Iran is indeed not in compliance with JCPOA. Trump administration has ratcheted up the earlier policy of regime change, demonising the Islamic Republic and supporting Iranian opposition in exile, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), which first blew whistle on Iranian nuclear sites in 2002 and in June, 2017 revealed details of escalation of Iranian nuclear program, feeding fears of the putative Iranian nuclear threat.While President Obama had chosen diplomacy, building of international consensus and negotiated agreement over military action to ensure that Iran doesn’t make nuclear bomb, Trump administration has indicated that it will not shy away from taking unilateral actions destroying the deal, which NikkieHalely, the US envoy to the United Nations has described as posing threat to American national security.

Even as Trump administration had certified Iran in compliance with the agreement in last three reports to Congress;imposition of fresh non-nuclear sanctions following ballistic missile tests by Iran indicate that Trump’s team is in process ofoverhauling Washington’s Iran policy.Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) signed by President Trump in August expanding sanctions against Russia, Iran, and North Korea, imposed sanctions on all individuals and entities related to Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which is in charge of country’s ballistic missile program. The act also put IRGC on the list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists for being responsible for implementing ‘Iran’s international program of destabilizing activities, support for acts of international terrorism and ballistic missiles.’

Given that Iran is in compliance of JCPOA so far, US is required to continue implementing its sanctions-lifting commitment under JCPOA, but imposition of non-nuclear sanctions on IRGC would make it difficult for American companies to do business with Iran; it might even kill Boeing’s $16 billion deal selling 80 jetliners to Iran. The bipartisan CAATSA resolution read that ‘considering the fact that IRGC officially enjoys a variety of connections and associations, this will effectively be paralysing for Iran.’

The US-Saudiarms deal worth $350 billion over a decade –inked at a time when reports of substantial death toll and human rights violations in Saudi-led coalition’s war in Yemen have emerged –is aimed at strengthening Saudi-led coalition – likened to an ‘Arab-NATO’ – to play an active role in containing Iranian regional ambitions, dealing with internal challenges to security of Gulf monarchies and lastlyin counter-terrorism operations such as against Houthis in Yemen and ISIS. Notwithstanding, Trump’swarning that “the nations of Middle East cannot wait for American power to crush their enemies for them,”their mutual enmity towards Iran forms the lynchpin of their shared ‘strategic vision.’ Trump, accusing Iran of funding, arming, and training terrorists, called on his Arab allies to isolate Iran, who then followed up by severing ties with Qatar, after accusing it of being too close to Iran and funding terrorism.   

For Iran, which has created an independent sphere of influence by supporting irregular warfare in the region within the normative framework of anti-imperialist revolutionary Islam, accusations of funding terrorists are not new and easily discounted as Western hostile propaganda.  However, Iranian officials have been alarmed by the US attempt of lobbying IAEA to seek inspection of Iranian military facilities and emerging possibility that Trump might declare Iran as noncompliant with JCPOA in mid-October, when the next periodic report to the Congress is due. The implementation of the deal is vital for Iran’s integration into international community of nations as a legitimate, responsible member, allowing it to draw foreign investment and technology to revive its decrepit energy infrastructure and create quality jobs necessary to ameliorate high unemployment rate of 12 per cent and exceedingly high youth unemployment rate of 30 per cent, according to IMF data released earlier this year.

To bolster its waning legitimacy Iranian regime has come to rely on a combination of nationalism – protecting the independence and defending the sovereign rights of the nation and standing up to ‘arrogant’ America – and furthering economic growth. In 2014, at the peak crippling international sanctions, Iranhad adopted the framework of resistance economy – changing the banking structure to facilitate domestic investment, creation of knowledge based economy, support for small business, and encouraging Iranians to purchase domestic products – to reduce Iran’s vulnerability to international sanctions. Iranian officials have argued that US hostility towards nuclear deal is aimed at fear mongering and scare off foreign investors from Iran.

Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation and Vice President argued in an interview to Der Spiegel that Iran is doing a cost-benefit analysis of whether to stay or leave the agreement in case US was to pull out of the agreement. He conceded that if the agreement is breached, economically Iran would face some difficulties, but politically it would be gaining, as it would give credibility to anti-Americanism and nationalist posturing, a leitmotif of Iranian political discourse. “We would tell our youth, don’t trust them anymore, we tried once and showed flexibility to reach the nuclear agreement. The IAEA has acknowledged our full compliance with the treaty, but the Americans broke the deal.” The collapse of deal, he argued would leave no chance for a settlement of North Korea’s nuclear issue and undermine the integrity of Non-Proliferation Treaty, bringing a Tsunami of outrage from countries interested in developing peaceful nuclear energy.

As long as the EU is firm in its commitment to implementing JCPOA, and European companies continue to bring much need investment, Iran would have incentives to hold on to its end of the deal. France’s Total SA along with China National Petroleum Corporation, CNPC signed a $5 billion agreement to develop South Pars offshore field – one of the largest in the world – over 20 years. The deal was first with foreign energy companies after sanctions were lifted. Iran has also cemented its partnership with Russia and China –two other signatories of JCPOA, who envision Iran as the trade and transport hub linking North and South. In eastern Iran, China is modernizing one of the country’s major rail routes, with the ultimate goal of connecting Tehran to Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. Similarly, the Inter-continental rail road project between Iran and Russia is an integral component of International North-South Transport Corridor, which begins in Europe and extends to India via Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran.

A more aggressive US strategy on Iran and possible US pull out from the nuclear deal does not augur well for diplomacy as a means to resolve intractable crisis and also for the stability in the ever restive region of the Middle East.

Deepika Saraswat

27th September 2017