A Retreat – Replete with Ramifications

As the diplomatic-militaristic travails of Washington in Afghanistan, approaches an otiose stretch of twenty years, it persists to be an odious reminder of the fallouts of an erroneous American adventurism, a bellwether of the convoluted texture of the power struggle in Afghanistan, and finally a painful testament, to the infructuous engagement by the regional forces, to meet their constricted interests.

In the wake of 9/11, followed by an avowed American proclamation to pulverize terrorism, the Afghan crisis has sauntered towards a make-shift reconciliatory mechanism at best, which explicates why the telos of trouncing Al Qaeda, outflanking the Taliban, recalibrating the dispensation, and instituting substantive democracy in Kabul, has been stunted.

In this regard, the February accord of 2020, forged between the U.S. and Taliban, under the aegis of the Trump administration, is the invaluable premise, facilitating a much-needed space to any diplomatic bargaining, pertaining to the Afghan problem. As per the pact, Washington is required to pull out its military personnel from Afghan territory by 1^st May, 2021.

This piece strives to offer a bird’s-eye view on the strategic and geo-political ramifications on the major regional stakeholders in the wake of a potential withdrawal by the American forces, as the May deadline looms closer. The assessment begins with India, before proceeding to Pakistan. Thereafter, it looks at the Asian behemoth in China, followed by an examination of Russia. It ends, by scrutinizing a less-talked about Iran.

It is an opportune moment for New Delhi, to discern the diplomatic reality that the Taliban might sail to the helms of power, in the event of an American militaristic retreat. Therefore notwithstanding its conspicuous repulsion to the Taliban, New Delhi must now explore its diplomatic outreach to the same. Saudi Arabia, which the Taliban perceives as its theocratic supremo, has heralded a fresh thrust on a moderate and inclusive variant of Islam, under the patronage of crown prince Muhammed Bin Salman. Under such a refurbished environment, India can assume a pro-active role, in persuading the Taliban to position themselves towards a similar variant, with a renewed emphasis on women empowerment, rule of law and so on. Needless to say, the Taliban can also be harnessed as a counter-force to a more potent Islamic State. India, however, also needs to keep in mind the proclivities of foreign interference in Afghanistan, in a revamped world order.

In the backdrop of an Afghan miasma, while Pakistan is leaving no stones unturned, to dispel any unwarranted misgivings, emanating from a potential capture of Kabul by Taliban, or a covert Pakistani support for the same, such guarantees are being perceived as lip-service at best. It is a well-known reality, that Pakistan has consistently facilitated a safe passage for Taliban, negating the diktats of Washington, with many in their home soil showing a tacit support to the cause. An astute Pakistan, will shed any iota of opposition, to an interim government in Kabul, not to smoothen the trajectory of a perpetual peace, but from their understanding that, once the Taliban is made a part of the power-sharing arrangement, its complete sway over the Afghan state, would be imminent. Such a modus operandi is strongly governed by geo-political calculations, banking on which, Pakistan aspires to pull the strings in the Afghan state. Moreover, through a multitude of energy and connectivity projects, potentially poised to run through Afghanistan, an arriviste Pakistan would wish to transfigure into a regional hub and the main trade and transit route to Central Asia.

Sino-Afghan ties have taken an upturn, under President Ashraf Ghani, who has time and again, fallen back to the aid and assistance of the Asian behemoth, with respect to an evolving peace process or economic upkeep. China’s burgeoning interest in Afghanistan, is suggestive of a potentially pro-active role, it might play in the wake of an American withdrawal. From a hard-power perspective, China has been incessantly bolstering its military presence in the region, a case in point, being the Chinese base in Tajikistan, close to the geo-strategic Wakhan Corridor, which serves as a conduit for Sino-Afghan connectivity. The fruition of a unit for a squad of mountain combatants in Afghanistan, under the patronage of China, may hint at greater militaristic collaboration, in the near future.

China’s dismal record, pertaining to human rights, has come under global vigilance, especially for its policies in Xinjiang. While the dignitaries in Washington, have levelled allegations against China, for their inhuman resorts, to contain the Muslim Uyghurs, Beijing has strived to construct a propitious opinion of itself in the Muslim world, by peddling a fallacious narrative, glorifying its positions. The media-establishments are operating in tandem with the diplomatic conduits in China, to further the cycle of indoctrination. Yao Jing, the chief of the foreign affairs office of the Xinjiang provincial government, who is also expected to serve as an envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan between 2015 and 2020, will be at the forefront in advertising and endorsing the Chinese version of the state of affairs. While the Afghan problem offers China with an access to hard-power equations hitherto unprecedented, its naivety in dispute-arbitration might propel it into a protracted long-term skirmish.

From a Russian geo-political prism, fallouts emanating from an Afghan flashpoint might percolate into Central Asia, with a capacity to clock up tension close to the borders in Kremlin. The potency, of the proliferating ideological fanaticism, along with the persistent inflow of illicit drugs into Russia, remain a source of angst for Kremlin, as a result of which, it expects for a peaceful settlement to the Afghan rigmarole, devoid of any militaristic blitzkrieg from its part.  Time and again, Russia has offered a springboard of discussion, on the Afghan question, hosting peace talks and intra-Afghan dialogues, thereby enunciating its readiness to engage with the Taliban. The deliberations, often centered round the tenability of an interim dispensation in the post-withdrawal period, with a place for both the Taliban and other Afghans, carries an implicit agenda of precluding the former from usurping all power.

Such a motivation has prompted Kremlin to engage with other Asian stakeholders, along with the dominant political cliques within Afghanistan. Kremlin’s sustained efforts in collaborating with the Afghan Pashtuns – who constitute 42 percent of the Afghan populace, apart from having significant presence in the echelons of Taliban – has been hailed as a “more diversified and national-level approach”. While Russia is against a long-term presence of American military in Afghanistan, it is also chary of a complete withdrawal, which in its understanding, might prompt Taliban to play the hard ball, and ratchet up tension.

The Iranian equation has been largely glossed over, while assessing the Afghan impasse, but it needs to be enunciated how Tehran’s modus operandi towards Afghanistan, will be a curious blend of regional interests at one level and global considerations at another, given its embittered ties with Washington. With Iran finding a significant bargaining space for itself in a potential UN-led regional system along with a string of major powers, as broached by the plenipotentiaries in Washington, it would give Tehran significant leeway, in charting out a pragmatic blueprint for its neighbour.

As a logical outcome of the “maximum pressure” policy employed by the Trump administration on Iran, Tehran perceives a potential American retreat, as an essential window, to liberate a geo-strategic theatre from U.S. military influence. Interestingly, the mutual interests of the Taliban and Iran converge over this question. The Iranian strategy towards Afghanistan has been dubbed as “coldly pragmatic, multifaceted and often seemingly contradictory”, with Tehran possessing both hard and soft power faculties to undermine American sway, and skirt any unwarranted convolution. While Tehran might not be a major stake-holder in the Kabul-Taliban-Washington dynamic, it definitely provides an effective springboard for other regional players to gravitate closer to the well sought-after peace in Afghanistan.

In conclusion, it must be averred that, as rubber hits the road, with an American retreat entailing a myriad of ripples across numerous borders, the world would keep its fingers crossed, hoping that the powder keg in Afghanistan soothes down, and peace fructifies.

References

1. “In Afghanistan, India needs a seat at the table” by Pranay Kumar Shome.

(https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/afghanistan-india-jaishankar-7254818/).

2. “From War to Peace: The Regional Stakes in Afghanistan’s Future” by Kabir Taneja.

(https://www.orfonline.org/research/from-war-to-peace-the-regional-stakes-in-afghanistans-future/).

3. “US withdrawal from Afghanistan spells dangerous geopolitical realignments” by S. Enders Wimbush

(https://thehill.com/opinion/international/546208-us-withdrawal-from-afghanistan-spells-dangerous-geopolitical).

Ratnadeep Maitra

Intern, Asia in Global Affairs