WHAT DOES YOON SUK-YEOL’S VICTORY MEAN FOR SOUTH KOREA?
Posted on : May 2, 2022Author : Dwaipayan Sinha
Abstract: The recent election in South Korea was one of the closest ones in recent history and saw Yoon Suk-yeol of the conservative People Power Party emerge as the winner. Yoon served as the Prosecutor General for the outgoing Moon government and came into limelight for his role in the conviction of two former Presidents. However, he soon fell out of favour with the Moon administration and joined the opposition. His campaign trail was extremely controversial for his outspoken views against women. His foreign policy vision is starkly different from his predecessor’s as he wants closer ties with Japan and United States while vilifying North Korea and an increasingly assertive China.
Following the trend of electing the liberals and the conservatives alternatively every five years, the South Korean people elected Yoon Suk-yeol of the conservative People Power Party as the next President. The voting took place in the second week of March 2022. This election turned out to be the closest one in the history of democracy in South Korea with experts predicting victory of candidates belonging to both the People Power Party and the incumbent Democratic Party.[i] It was only in 1987 that the military dictatorship was seen off. Yoon Suk-yeol was successful in defeating his competitor Lee Jae-myung by a victory margin of less than 1 percent.
Earlier Yoon used to serve as the Prosecutor General for the outgoing President Moon Jae-in. He played a historic role in the prosecution and sentencing of Lee Myung-bak and Park Gyeun-hye, both former Presidents of the party Yoon represents now, for abusing their power.[ii] Serving in the role of a state prosecutor for close to three decades, Yoon became an overnight darling of the mainstream media after the Samsung tycoon Lee Jae-yong was sentenced for bribery[iii]. However, Yoon’s honeymoon period with Moon was short-lived as Yoon alleged corrupt practises against the then Justice Minister Cho Kuk in 2019 which led to loss of public image for the ruling party as one of Moon’s pledges in his campaign to power was eradication of corruption. The Democratic Party accused Yoon of pursuing his own political agenda and trying to sabotage the reforms in the judicial sphere that were being attempted to be brought about by Moon. This led to the resignation of Yoon from his post and he joined the opposition party soon.[iv]
Contrast in Campaigns
In contrast to Moon, Lee Jae-Myung made his name as a prominent human rights activist. He also served as the Governor of Gyeonggi. It is the largest province of the nation. He is extremely popular among the impoverished and poverty-stricken sections of the society. One of his main agendas was expansion of South Korea’s welfare policies. He promised that he would give $840 annually to all South Koreans if he was elected to power.[v] His proposed to continue with the existing foreign policy of South Korea and mend its ties with North Korea. Even though South Korea is an official military ally of the United States, it has attempted to have an equidistant position in the ongoing US-China confrontation in the region.
Yoon, on his part, focussed on livelihood issues like unemployment, inequality and the economic troubles brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic. The anti-corruption crusader promised to launch investigations against politicians and officials of the Moon administration. Yoon made headlines during his campaign trail for his anti-feminist remarks. He believes that systematic discrimination against women does not exist in South Korea. Thus, he promised the abolishment of the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family. Yoon also took up an anti-immigration stand. His promise of building 2,50,000 new homes to deal with the unaffordable housing crisis struck a chord with voters. Young male voters favoured Yoon for his anti-feminist stance as they are disgruntled with the small special privileges that are accorded to women in a fiercely competitive job market.[vi] The new President’s anti-communist views and loathing for North Korea have been a massive hit among the older population.
The Way Forward in Foreign Relations
The President-elect’s foreign policy vision is drastically different from that of his predecessor’s. Yoon envisages taking South Korea’s foreign relations back to what it was in the 20th Century. He has expressed his desires of launching a pre-emptive strike on North Korea in order to deal with the North’s nuclear program and missile ambitions. He wants the redeployment of American nuclear missiles on South Korean soil.[vii] Annual US-South Korea military exercise is also envisaged for resumption by Yoon. The Moon government had decided to do away with the annual war games on the Korean peninsula in 2018. This was done as a confidence-building measure with the North. It was only after this that the North Korean leadership decided to hold talks with South Korea and the then Donald Trump administration in the US. The Moon administration played a key role behind the two meetings that were held between the American and North Korean leadership.
Yoon does not hold a favourable view of the North. He has been extremely critical of Moon’s North Korea policy. Taking a strong stance against North Korea, he said he was against the dialogue process between Americans and North Koreans. He even went to the extent of calling Kim Jong-un a “rude boy” and wanted to teach him some manners.[viii] He accused the Moon administration of being subservient to the Chinese and North Korean leadership. This, he claimed, soured relations with the United States. Yoon advocated for the continuation of UN sanctions on North Korea as long as the country retains nuclear capabilities. He has stated that North Korea must abandon its nuclear ambitions if the dialogue process with the South is to continue. This is contrary to the stand taken by the Moon administration. North Korea, on its part, is looking conduct more nuclear tests as the current Joe Biden administration seems to have let gone off the dialogue process.
Yoon has stated that he is against the Moon government’s attempts to end the Korean conflict formally[ix]. Even though the Korean War virtually ended in the 1950s, South Korea and the US are still warring with North Korea officially. Such a stand has been severely criticised by Yoon’s opponents. Furthermore, Yoon aspires to buy more THAAD American missile systems which would act against a deterrent to Chinese ambitions in the region.[x] China had earlier strongly reacted to the first delivery of the missile system in 2016. South Korea was subject to a host of economic measures that had severely hurt its economy. South Korea is heavily dependent on China for its economic progress.
Yoon has signalled that South Korea should align with American idea of a “free and open Indo-Pacific”.[xi] He aspires to work closely with American security arrangements in the region for this purpose. The impetus of the Yoon government would be on strengthening of military ties between US, Japan and South Korea. Even though ties with the United States have witnessed massive improvement in the last few years, the relationship between Japan and South Korea is complicated. The issue of war reparations for Korean women who were compelled to serve as sex slaves, also known as “comfort women”, by the Imperial Japanese army during the Second World War sticks out as the most important problem.[xii] For Koreans, the Japanese colonial regime serves as a bitter memory.
It is expected that North Korea would also become more hostile to the South in the coming years with Yoon occupying the Blue House. The conservatives have usually been critical of reaching out to the North. Kim Dae-jung, who served as the first progressive President of South Korea, came under heavy criticism from the conservatives for his “sunshine policy” which attempted a softening of North Korea’s attitude towards the South by encouraging interaction and financial aid.[xiii] The three basic principles of the national security policy were no armed provocation by the North will be tolerated, the South will not attempt to absorb the North in any way and the South actively seeks cooperation and promote reconciliation. The conservatives have sought to do away with such confidence-building measures.
The United States will be pleased to have Yoon at the helm as he would forward US objectives in the region. “President Biden emphasized the United States’ commitment to the defense of the ROK and that he looks forward to working together to deepen cooperation on key global challenges, including climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic and supply chains,” read a White House statement stating that Biden had congratulated Yoon on his victory.[xiv]
Dwaipayan Sinha
Intern, Asia in Global Affairs
References:
[i] Yoon Suk-yeol wins South Korea’s presidential election
[ii] South Korean ‘swordsman’ leads prosecution against impeached ex-leader Park
(https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-politics-park-prosecutor-idUSKBN18J0P6)
[iii] Lee Jae Yong: Samsung heir gets prison term for bribery scandal
(https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55674712)
[iv]Ex-Prosecutor General Yoon joins main opposition party for presidential bid (http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20210730000621)
[v] The South Korean Presidential Hopeful Who Believes His Childhood Can Help Him Heal His Nation
(https://time.com/6154471/south-korea-president-election-lee-jae-myung/)
[vi] How South Korea’s Yoon Suk-yeol Capitalized on Anti-Feminist Backlash to Win the Presidency
(https://time.com/6156537/south-korea-president-yoon-suk-yeol-sexism/)
[vii] Yoon says he will request redeployment of US tactical nukes in case of emergency
(http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20210922000310)
[viii] South Korea’s New President To Teach “Rude Boy” Kim Jong Un Some Manners
[ix] From Moon to Yoon: will the Korean peninsula see fire and fury return?
[x] Yoon’s pledge to boost THAAD missile system risks China reprisal
(https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/South-Korea-election/Yoon-s-pledge-to-boost-THAAD-missile-system-risks-China-reprisal)
[xi] Biden seeks deeper ties with South Korea as Yoon is elected president
(https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/03/5958d3fe1810-biden-seeks-deeper-ties-with-s-korea-as-yoon-is-elected-president.html?phrase=smith&words=)
[xii] Conflict Between South Korea and Japan Surges Again With Court’s ‘Comfort Women’ Decision
(https://thediplomat.com/2021/01/conflict-between-south-korea-and-japan-surges-again-with-courts-comfort-women-decision/)
[xiii] The Sunshine Policy of South Korea
(http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2017/ph241/min2/)
[xiv] Yoon, Biden reaffirm alliance in phone call
(http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20220310000718&mod=skb)
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