The New Normal

In an article entitled “The Revenge of History: Eurasia Rises” Samir Saran (Raisina Debates June 8 2018) argued that a focus on the Indo Pacific would be an insufficient measure to contain the spectacular rise of China that spans Asia and Europe and that as history repeats itself it is in Eurasia that the future of democracy, of free markets and global security arrangements will be determined. It is therefore crucial to look beyond the Indo-Pacific into the heart of Eurasia. In this ‘pivotal space’ engagement in recent years has been formalized principally through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization of which India became a full member in June 2017. India’s entry into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization was through a much debated process where the advantages and disadvantages of membership into a multilateral forum that would include not just Russia and China but also Pakistan was subject to intense scrutiny not just by commentators from within India but also globally. More positive commentaries assumed that the SCO would become a forum where Pakistan could be held accountable for its terrorism, India’s relations with China would be negotiated and peripherally the issue of non-contiguity of India with the Central Asian region would be resolved by opening up lines of communication through Pakistan and Afghanistan. While much of these expectations are yet to fructify and the expectation of a ‘consolidating East’ has been dealt a blow in recent months, the projection of the SCO as a forum for discussion and negotiation has been vindicated principally through a mechanism of bilateral meetings on the sidelines of formal SCO summits. This continues the recent trend of informal diplomacy where contentious bilateral issues that reflect deep national concerns are increasingly being negotiated.

While in 2019 much of the SCO summit news was about the bilateral meetings that Prime Minister Narendra Modi held with the Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Chinese Premier Xi Jinping (where among other issues they had touched upon the trade war between China and the US and the impact of US sanctions on Iran) this year the Council of SCO Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Moscow has been dominated by news of the first face to face political level meetings, after the escalation of border tensions, held on the sidelines of the summit between Indian and Chinese delegates.  Defense Minister Rajnath Singh met with the Defense Minister of China Wei Fenghe on 4 September and the Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on 10 September. Earlier the two had met for an extended lunch with the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov as part of the Russia-India-China trilateral dialogue. These were the first face to face meetings between the two sides at the political level since the Chinese intrusions in April and came after the failure of many rounds of diplomatic and military level discussions to ensure disengagement along the LAC at Ladakh. While the first meeting ended with both sides stressing the need to de-escalate, tensions flared up once again with accusations and counter accusations from both sides.

This first meeting however, paved the way for the discussions between Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on 10 September. The Joint Press Statement issued after the meeting emphasized five points of consensus possibly heralding the possibility of a new equilibrium in the relationship (1) that both sides would take guidance from the series of consensus of the leaders on developing India China relations, including not allowing differences to become disputes (2) that the current situation in the border areas is not in the interest of either side. They agreed therefore that the border troops of both sides should continue their dialogue, quickly disengage, maintain proper distance and ease tensions (3) that both the sides shall abide by all existing agreements and protocol on India China boundary affairs, maintain peace and tranquility in the border areas and avoid any action that could escalate matters (4) the two sides also agreed to continue dialogue and communication through Special Representative mechanism on the India-China boundary question. They also agreed in this context that the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China border affairs should continue its meetings (5) and finally as tension eases the two sides should expedite work to conclude new confidence-building measures to maintain peace and tranquility in the border areas.

Differences however remained with India stressing that the India-China border issue cannot be de-linked from the state of the countries’ bilateral relationship a position that China does not espouse. However, insulating border differences from the commercial and diplomatic relationship no longer seems to be the acceptable norm of the complex relationship and it is this ‘new’ normal that will now determine the future of negotiations.

 Anita Sengupta