Protests in Russia

In the latter half of January widespread protests, which erupted in many Russian cities including Moscow and St Petersburg, have drawn global attention. These protests were extraordinary in terms of participation and spread. The protests were in response to the 17^th January arrest of Alexei A. Navalny, who was returning from Berlin after receiving medical treatment following an alleged attempt on his life using Novichok by Russian agents.

Alexei A. Navalny (44) is a leader of Russia of the Future Party and the founder of Anti Corruption Foundation (FBK). He has been a vocal critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin and has used Social Media, especially Youtube and Twitter, to highlight corruption of the Putin’s United Russia Party and in particular Putin. In August 2020, while on a plane from Tomsk to Moscow, Navalny showed symptoms of poisoning and was provided treatment after an emergency landing in Omsk. Later he was shifted to Berlin for treatment. During his stay in Berlin, doctors confirmed that the substance used to poison Navalny was Novichok nerve agent.

Independent investigation by The Insider and Bellingcat, in cooperation with CNN and Der Spiegel, has claimed that poisoning of Navalny was coordinated by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB). On his part, Navalny has also claimed and released his conversation with as Russian security official, Konstantin Kudryavtsev, who stated that the poison was placed on the clothing of Navalny, especially his underpants.

Navalny was planning to contest for the Presidential Elections in 2018. However, he was barred by the Russian Election Commission due to his conviction in an embezzlement case for which he was given a suspended sentence of five years. He also launched Smart Voting project in 2018 whereby he encourages tactical voting to support any opposition candidate against United Russia party. This had moderate success in 2019 St Petersburg Governor Elections and 2019 Moscow State Duma Elections.

Navalny after his recovery chose to return to Russia on 17^th January. He was arrested immediately on his arrival after his plane was diverted from Vnukovo International Airport to Sheremetyova Alexander S. Pushkin International Airport. Court has sent Navalny to jail for 2 years and 8 months on 2^nd Feb 2021 in an old embezzlement case for which Navalny was on probation due to suspended sentence. Following his arrest, FBK released a two-hour video alleging Putin of corruption and has also claimed that Putin has built a one billion dollar palace in Gelendzhik on the coast of Black Sea.

The arrest of Navalny and subsequent release of the video started a series of protests in many Russian cities. According to independent estimates, thousands have been arrested and protests have been declared illegal by Russian state-controlled media. Protestors have employed novel methods to protest like honking, showing of underpants (depicting use of Novichok on underpants of Navalny), golden toilet brush (depicting the golden toilet in the palace, allegedly belonging to Putin) and posting pictures in red dress on Instagram (colour of the dress worn by the wife of Navalny on the day of his sentencing). In Russia, 2020 was a difficult year with COVID-19 and low oil prices resulting in economic crisis. According to the World Bank, the national poverty rate in Russia increased to 12.6 per cent and 13.2 per cent in the first and second quarter of 2020, respectively. Thus, the protests are also seen as a result of growing disparity in income levels in Russia.

The protests have worried the Russian government which has to face an election for State Duma in September. They have used strong-arm tactics against the protestors and have largely dismissed Navalny as a stooge of Western Intelligence agencies. The timing of the return of Navalny has also been criticized as he returned on the eve of the change of US President. New US President Joe Biden has shown the inclination to question Russia for alleged interference in 2016 US Presidential Elections. The change is also likely to impact US-Russia relations. There is likely growth in US interference in global politics which was limited during four years of Donald Trump.

On his part, President Putin and his team have also tried to handle the criticism and charges of corruption. Arkady Rotenberg, a friend of Putin and a Russian billionaire, has claimed that the palace is owned by him. Also, there have been flash mobs in many Russian cities in support of Putin. Russia has also expelled diplomats of Poland, Sweden and Germany for participating in the protest in Russia.

The crackdown on protests, the arrest of Navalny and his sentencing has been criticized by most Western countries and the United Nations. Severest criticism for the Russian government has come from the new US Government. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a tweet stated, “The United States is deeply concerned by Russia’s actions toward Aleksey Navalny. We reiterate our call for his immediate and unconditional release as well as the release of all those wrongfully detained for exercising their rights.” The US is also likely to impose sanctions on Russia for scuttling democratic norms. This is seen as an attempt by the US to get over the events of January 2021 in which US Capitol was stormed by supporters of then US President Donald Trump. The US will like to regain its moral high ground for the spread of democracy. The protests have also drawn global interest with newspapers in most countries carrying reports of protests with pictures.

The spate of protests is likely to dwindle in coming weeks with the Russian government taking strong action and supporters of Navalny calling for the cancellation of protests till spring to consolidate and work for elections in September. With Navalny out of the picture due to his sentencing, there are very few opposition leaders in Russia who can take a strong position against Putin. The opposition in Russia is fragmented and has very less chance of challenging United Russia Party in the coming elections without any unifying figure.

The release of Navalny will depend on pressure which Russia may feel from sanctions being deliberated by Western countries. The COVID-19 crisis is likely to continue for some time and Russia will require to deal with other countries as the recovery of trade and commerce will be of primary importance in the coming months.

Arpita Giri

Adjunct Researcher, Asia in Global Affairs