Covid-19 Crisis and the US-China Competition

Since the Second World War and especially following the end of the Cold War the United States has been one of the leading powers in the world. With the rise of China and the “America First” policy of President Donald Trump, the global influence of the US is not what it used to be. But an even  greater impact will be that of the effect of the current global pandemic. Since the pandemic is still persisting its effects will be felt a long time into the future. However it has already had an impact on the global economy. The immediate impact of the pandemic can be divided into three categories. Economic, political and social.

Economically no country has escaped from the worst effects of the pandemic. Some countries have coped better than others. In countries where the death toll is rapidly rising they have a health crisis along with an economic one. In this regard the United States is the worst affected. President Trump realized quite late in the day, the seriousness of the crisis, and even then his measures were half-hearted and lackadaisical in nature. This allowed the virus time to spread to a substantive section of the population of the United States. Even now it is the governors of the various US states who are taking an active and serious role in dealing with this crisis, while the administration of President Trump has not done enough to help the US states. The credibility of the United States not only among other countries but also within its own population is at an all-time low.

The private sector is much more involved than the government in helping needy Americans. What little remained of the global leadership of the United States under President Trump has evaporated. Most countries see the American case and want to avoid replicating the terrible mistakes that have been made there resulting in the grim scenario.. This should not have been the case. Scientists had been warning the US government right from January about the seriousness of the crisis, but the government did not heed to their warnings. The Trump administration was more interested in keeping the economy open and functioning, instead of worrying about the health of Americans. In an election year Donald Trump did not want to jeopardize the economy which he expects to be one of his key selling points in the presidential election campaign this November. He overlooked the fact that if the vast majority of Americans are not healthy then the national economy cannot function effectively. This proved to be  one of the biggest mistakes in his calculation.

Consequently, the US economy is in doldrums from which it is expected to take a long time to recover once this pandemic is over. The US health system has completely crashed under the pressure of the increasing number of death tolls in the country. This is to be expected in a third world country, not in the most developed country in the world. The democratic system of the United States has completely failed to deal with this crisis. It is this breach that the People’s Republic of China has filled up.

Even though the virus originated in the city of Wuhan in China, today the city has reopened. In most of China the situation has been brought under control. This is because the Communist Party has been able to enforce stricter lockdown measures than the democratic apparatus of the United States and other countries. It was the opaque power structure of the Communist Party rule which initially allowed the virus to spread within China and later on to become a global pandemic. However the Party has made amends for its initial mistakes. It has cooperated with the World Health Organization after initial stonewalling. Ventilators and other medical equipment have been supplied to European and other countries as a sign of goodwill diplomacy in this global crisis. Chinese doctors have been sent to these countries as well to provide assistance where required. The Communist Party has gone on a propaganda overdrive to cover up its initial mistakes in the crisis and to show that it was dealing with the problem right from the initial stages. Though there have been alleged human rights violations during this crisis including the death of the Chinese doctor who initially reported the seriousness of the virus, the image of China in the world today is better than it was at the beginning of the crisis. Socially the image of the Chinese Communist Party amongst its own people has improved while that of the US government amongst its own people has fallen sharply. The help that China has offered to other countries has been much appreciated.

Normally it is the United States which helps other countries in a global crisis. But in the present global pandemic the United States is the worst affected country. The authoritarian system of the Communist Party has been seen as more effective in dealing with this crisis than the democratic system of the United States and other countries. There has been a shakeup in the global international order as a result of this pandemic. Whether this will have a long term impact remains to be seen. People have also lost faith in international institutions like the World Health Organization. The free movement of people between countries will be severely affected through this crisis. Governments which want to reduce foreign influence will use the health check-ups of those entering a country as an excuse to exclude those who they do not want. National governments in all countries have got increasing power through this crisis for example Victor Orban of Hungary has assumed dictatorial powers through this crisis. This is power that some governments might retain even after the crisis is over. China still does not have the heft to completely replace the United States globally. But this crisis is no doubt an inflection point in that direction.

Whether the Communist Party of China can use this crisis completely to its advantage is something that will only be decided in the distant future. In the meantime the credibility of the post-World War II international order has been further eroded. It will take a lot of effort and time to bring back the reputation of the international global order to its previous standing. Mistakes will have to be accepted and corrective measures taken otherwise this crisis could be a turning point in global history.

Post Covid-19, there will be a new world order reshuffling the present scenario. Restoring the economy is of course the first priority for all but after that a lot depends on how the United States deals with China.

Anirban Sen

Intern, AGA

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and do not reflect the position of Asia in Global Affairs.