Delhi’s Dhaka Dilemma
Posted on : November 23, 2023Author : Dwaipayan Sinha
Abstract: Tensions are on the rise in the US-Bangladesh relations as the Biden government has adopted a strong stance against Hasina’s human rights records. This puts the India-Bangladesh ties under stress as Hasina has been one of the strongest Indian allies. With the domestic opposition parties in Bangladesh, gaining ground, India is concerned that its interests in Bangladesh and in the neighbourhood would be compromised if the Biden administration continues with the anti-Hasina overtures. India, which has seen its own ties with the US rapidly change in recent years, faces the dilemma of managing hostile ties between its eastern neighbour and its Quad partner.
Keywords: Modi, Biden, Hasina, BNP, Awami League, China, Russia, Xi Jinping
On March 26, 2023, Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed was greeted by the United States president Joe Biden to commemorate 52 years of independence of Bangladesh. “As Bangladesh approaches its next election, I am reminded of the deep value both of our nations’ people place on democracy, equality, respect for human rights, and free and fair elections,” Biden remarked.[i] This is not the first time that the US government has censured the Hasina administration on the issue of violation of human rights. Former and serving officials of Bangladesh’s elite paramilitary force RAB (Rapid Action Battalion) were earlier sanctioned by the US Treasury Department. It has been alleged that the RAB’s intimidation tactics and abuse of power have been behind the political dominance of Hasina’s Awami League. Taking cognizance of this, the Biden administration has even threatened to impose visa sanctions against individuals who are found to be responsible for manipulating elections. This will eventually hurt the booming garment industry of Bangladesh.
The US human rights reports of 2021 and 2022 have shed light on the gross violation of human rights in Bangladesh.[ii] The Digital Security Act has been used to stamp out any dissenting voice. Biden did not invite Bangladesh to the Summit of Democracy even though other countries with similar human rights concerns like Pakistan received invitation. Hasina’s visit to the World Bank in Washington DC in May was ignored by the Biden administration. This shows that there is a shift in US’ policy on Bangladesh.
Hasina, the longest serving female head of any state, on her part, has alleged that the US government intends to usher in regime change in Bangladesh. “America can change power in any country it wants. They want to bring such a government here which will not have any democratic existence,” she said in parliament.[iii] She has also alleged that Muhammad Yunus, who is being investigated by the anti-graft agency of Bangladesh for corruption, is being favoured by the US government.
Opposition Feeling Empowered
The US’ interference in Bangladesh’s domestic matters has bolstered Hasina’s political opponents, who have been on the margins for the last few years. Khaleda Zia-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) organised many rallies against the Hasina government, criticising the incumbent government’s handling of economic issues and the authoritarian functioning of the administration. Islamist groups like Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) have also grown popular, particularly among the youth as the young voters feel the economic pinch. Transnational Islamist groups like Al Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) see Bangladesh as a fertile ground for recruitment. The Pakistan-based Al Khidmat Foundation has been accused by the Bangladeshi government of radicalising Rohingya refugees in the Chittagong area.
The sudden upsurge in the popularity of JeI and BNP has distressed both the Indian and the Bangladeshi governments. Bangladesh’s national elections are to be held in January 2024 and it is quite possible that the BNP-JeI alliance comes to power. This would be counterproductive to India’s ambitions in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) as the previous Zia government was known to patronise fundamentalist groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Jamaat-ul- Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh (HuJI–B).[iv]
Burgeoning India-Bangladesh Ties
India-Bangladesh ties have been strengthened in the Modi regime under India’s “Neighbourhood First” policy.[v] Modi and Hasina have agreed to improve connectivity, ensure security, and border management, expand trade in power and energy sector and engage in river water distribution discussions which will deepen friendship between the two nations. Bangladesh’s exports to India have doubled over the past year and is currently valued at $2 billion. India’s exports to Bangladesh are currently valued at $16 billion and have seen an increase of 70 percent. The Akhaura-Agartala rail and the Shahojadpur-Kulaura rail line are to be launched soon strengthening the connectivity between the two neighbours.
A Taka-Rupee dual currency card that allows Bangladeshi nationals who visit India to spend in rupees and avoid the interim US dollar convertibility is to be launched soon in Dhaka. The two neighbours are engaged in discussions on importing electricity from Nepal and Bhutan through India. The Bangladesh government has been unable to meet the rising demand for electricity- which has been a major concern of the garment industry that generates foreign revenue. 1600 MW of electricity is currently imported by Bangladesh from India.[vi] It is expected that other South Asian countries like Sri Lanka will also enter into such agreements where energy trade will be conducted via India.
Even though the sharing of Teesta river water has been a major bone of contention between the two Bengals, satisfactory solutions have emerged regarding water sharing arrangements of other rivers. A memorandum of understanding has been signed between India and Bangladesh regarding Feni river water sharing. The two governments have decided to set up a framework for an interim agreement on how to share water of Manu, Mahuri, Khowai, Gomti, Dharla and Dudhkumar.
India played a crucial role in the Bangladeshi independence movement of 1971 and was generally viewed positively. Internal political turmoil in Bangladesh and the harbouring of several anti-India groups by consecutive Bangladeshi regimes spawned distrust between the neighbours.[vii] Insurgent groups like National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT), United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) and National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) were given shelter by the previous Zia government. After assuming power, Shaikh Hasina adopted a pro-India stance and weeded out anti-India groups from Bangladeshi soil.
Bangladesh’s Balancing Act
Sheikh Hasina’s government is the most trusted partner of India in South Asia- a region where India considers itself to be the leading power. However, the Chinese government has made major inroads in the South Asian countries with many traditional friends of India looking for alternative partners as they are disgruntled with the “big brother” attitude of the Indian governments.
Biden government’s anti-Hasina stance have set alarm bells ringing in New Delhi as the Indian officials fear the Delhi-Dhaka relationship will be endangered by such moves. The US government’s own record in ensuring human rights in allied countries is questionable as it has historically supported autocratic regimes though it professes to be concerned about human rights.
Bangladesh under Hasina has made rapid economic progress with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) ranking Bangladesh as the fastest growing economy in the Asia-Pacific region ahead of India, Vietnam, and China in 2019. It has targeted to become a developed nation by 2041- which will mark 70 years of Liberation War. Bangladesh’s geographical location ensures that it becomes a crucial ally for all nations vying for influence in the Indian Ocean Region.[viii] Both the United States and China, who are engaged in the “new Cold War”, are seeking to increase their footprint in Bangladesh. The India-China relationship is also under strain due to prevailing border tensions between the two. This has forced Bangladesh to walk on the tightrope in maintaining cordial relations with all the major powers under the “friendship with all and malice for none” policy.[ix] Dhaka knows that maintaining strong ties with India, China and United States is essential for the infrastructural and economic development of the nation.
Chinese and Russian Interests in Bangladesh
The friction between the governments of Hasina and Biden has seen Bangladesh grow closer to China and Russia. The Chinese government was quick to back Bangladesh against “external interference.” “China supports Bangladesh in safeguarding national sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, and in opposing external interference, so that the country can maintain domestic unity and stability, and achieve development and revitalisation,” remarked Chinese premier Xi Jinping. He added that Beijing was “willing to continue to work with Bangladesh in firmly supporting each other in issues involving their respective core interests.”[x]
Bangladesh formally joined Xi’s dream project Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) during his visit to Bangladesh in 2016. China has since invested $38.05 billion in Bangladesh. China has emerged as the biggest trading partner, foreign direct investor, trade importer and defence hardware supplier to Bangladesh.[xi] Bangladesh has decided to use the Chinese yuan as an alternative currency to the US dollar in international transactions. Bangladesh has informed Russia that it will use Chinese yuan to pay $12.65 billion for the civil nuclear plant that is being set up by Rosatom (the Russian atomic company) in Rooppur. China today is the solitary nation with which Bangladesh has a defence agreement. China is engaged in building bridges, ports, airports, roads, railways and power plants in Bangladesh. Hasina was forced to abandon the Chinese project of building Sonadia deep-sea port, keeping in mind Indian sensitivities. China has sought to increase its goodwill in Bangladesh by providing scholarships to Bangladeshi students to study in China. Moreover, it has encouraged Bangladeshis to learn Chinese, which has seen the establishment of a Bangladesh army- run Chinese language centre in Bangladesh University. Additionally, Xi has cultivated ties with BNP as well, ensuring that Chinese interests would be protected even if Hasina is out of power.
Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, visited Dhaka in the first week of September 2023 just before attending the G20 summit in Delhi. This marked the first time that a Russian foreign minister paid a visit to Bangladesh since 1971. There have been numerous attempts to solidify the Russo-Bangladesh relationship through trade, defence and energy ties. The Bangladeshi administration expects the Russians to deepen economic ties and share critical military technology which would enhance Bangladesh’s military capabilities. Additionally, Russia’s international influence is expected to bring in more foreign investments into Bangladesh. Lavrov criticised US’ views on the Hasina government. “Despite pressure exerted upon Bangladesh by the United States and its allies, our Bangladesh friends are guided exclusively by their national interest in their foreign policy,” Lavrov said. “We can clearly see the United States and its allies are truly trying to promote their interests in the region by using the so-called Indo-Pacific strategy: their goal is clearly both to deter China and to isolate Russia in the region,” he added.[xii] This has come as a major boost to the Hasina administration.
Challenges Ahead
It is believed that the purpose behind US’ political hounding of Hasina is that it considers Hasina to be closer strategic ally of China. It wants Bangladesh to sign the General Security of Military Agreement (GSOMIA) and the Acquisition Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) which it considers “essential to enable a close relationship.”[xiii] The US is hedging its bets on the return of Zia to power as Hasina is reluctant to sign the two agreements. It hopes that egging the opposition parties will oust Hasina from power and enable the US to curtail Chinese influence in Bangladesh. Awami League ally Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal president Hasanul Haque Inu has alleged that the US administration seeks to take control of Saint Martin’s Island.[xiv]
The US’ objectives in Bangladesh runs contrary to those of India. India does not want Hasina to lose power as that might destabilize the poverty-stricken neighbourhood and give political space to Islamist forces. Hasina is aware that she needs Indian support to remain in power. She expects India to bat for her given New Delhi’s growing bonhomie with the United States. India is in a fix as China has already started courting Bangladesh and New Delhi must act to save its influence in the region.
India invited Bangladesh to the G20 summit as one of the guest nations- the sole nation from South Asia. The summit saw Biden and Hasina having an informal talk and taking a selfie (which also included Hasina’s daughter) initiated by Biden himself. This is being widely seen as a thawing of relations between the two nations.
-Dwaipayan Sinha
Asia in Global Affair
[i]A hitch in Bangladesh-US relations?(https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/a-hitch-in-bangladesh-us-relations/)[ii] U.S. Government Releases Bangladesh Human Rights Report
(https://bd.usembassy.gov/29443/)
[iii]Sheikh Hasina accuses US of seeking regime change in Bangladesh
(https://scroll.in/latest/1047161/sheikh-hasina-accuses-us-of-seeking-regime-change-in-bangladesh)
[iv]Bangladesh: The Wind in Jamaat-e-Islami’s Sails is Worrying For India
(https://www.thequint.com/opinion/bangladesh-the-wind-in-jamaat-e-islamis-sails-is-worrying-for-india)
[v] Neighbourhood First: Bangladesh PM to visit India, focus on deepening ties
(https://www.financialexpress.com/business/defence-neighbourhood-first-bangladesh-pm-to-visit-india-focus-on-deepening-ties-2654504/)
[vi] Adani Group offers to export another 1,600 MW electricity to Bangladesh: Sources
(https://en.prothomalo.com/business/local/u4g9ohewhc)
[vii]India must continue to support Hasina, but should not write off Khaleda Zia(https://www.orfonline.org/research/india-must-continue-to-support-hasina-but-should-not-write-off-khaleda-zia/
[viii] B3W-A Viable Alternative to BRI?
(https://english.khabarhub.com/2022/03/230067/)
Bangladesh’s Balancing Act Under Pressure
(https://niice.org.np/archives/7540)
[x] China opposes external interference in Bangladesh: Xi
(https://en.prothomalo.com/bangladesh/8j5r5v6xw7)
[xi]China in South Asia: Bangladesh is Tilting towards China
(https://southasianvoices.org/china-in-south-asia-bangladesh-is-tilting-towards-china/)
[xii]Russia woos Bangladesh
(https://www.manilatimes.net/2023/09/09/world/asia-oceania/russia-woos-bangladesh/1909235)
[xiii]Bangladesh mulls information-sharing agreement with the U.S.(https://ipdefenseforum.com/2019/10/bangladesh-mulls-information-sharing-agreement-with-the-u-s/
XIV https://en.prothomalo.com/bangladesh/parliament/kxhetel0ld
(https://en.prothomalo.com/bangladesh/parliament/kxhetel0ld)
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