DEEPENING THE GORDIAN KNOT: RUSSIAN SUSPENSION OF ‘NEW START TREATY’
Posted on : March 13, 2023Author : RAUNAK BHATTACHARJEE
Source: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70565/photos/70394
“The Russian belligerence against Ukraine has been morphing into a stalemate”, these are the exact words used by the Western media houses in general, under the undue influence of the Five Eyes Club, to present their discourse vis-à-vis the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict. The economic war, being waged by the United States and its allies, particular, the United Kingdom, against the Russian Federation, has further pushed the latter to the Chinese camp, who at the commencement of the crisis, did voice out their vote of dissent against the presence of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), but over time, has obviously kept herself under check; a classic Chinese ploy picked from the Stratagems of the Warring States, the Chinese equivalent to Kautilya’s Arthashastra (‘Compendium on Statecraft’) and Machiavelli’s Il Principe (‘The Prince’), that provides the wisdom, ‘wai ru, nei fa’ (‘mask of munificence veiling the bestiality of the self’).
It is under such precarious and pernicious circumstances, one should take cognizance of the fact that a year has passed, with the clouds of conflict still intact, and neither Vladimir Putin nor Volodymyr Zelensky are backing down from their aggressive stances, thereby aggrandizing the conflict, and with the delivery of Western weapons to Ukraine, the Russian Federation finds itself in a Gordian knot, out of which it cannot really find a way out, but with time, gets itself more inextricably engrossed. Bearing these ontological facets in mind, President Putin has kept his right foot forward and suspended the new START, that was signed in 2011 by his predecessor, Dmitri Medvedev and then-US President Barack Obama.
The START is an acronym for Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, that actually stands for ‘The Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms’, a policy relic of the erstwhile Cold War-era Containment strategy, as envisioned by George F Kennan, adhered to, by the United States vis-à-vis the USSR, augmented by détente and deterrence. This is indeed an unforeseen step from Putin’s modus operandi, and is not at all reflective of Soviet diplomatic strategy, something that was not done even at the height of the Soviet’s Afghan misadventure of the 1980s. This brings out in the open, multiple and multifarious vicissitudes in the mode of warfare, with the Russian arsenal being put to use, on a scale that has not been witnessed in the passing year.
Kyiv’s assertive position with President Zelensky at the helm, in his camouflage dress greens, meeting with Western leaders, lobbying for weapons and garnering support, have been augmented by US President Joseph Biden’s Ukraine visit and subsequent stopovers at the capitals of NATO member states like Poland, that had earlier been under the Soviet led Warsaw Pact and fell directly under the USSR’s area of influence, have not been missed by Moscow. The revocation of the New START that was set to expire by February 4, 2026 is indeed a solid statement that the Russian Federation finds itself in tough waters. As the famed Russian commentator, Mark Galeotti, in his work, Putin’s Wars: From Chechnya to Ukraine, highlights, nuclear weapons, to Putin, are not just ornamental to the vast military arsenal, but are instrumental in the exhibition of Russian hard power, and shall be resorted to, in the last phase of strategic evaluation, when escalation has reached its zenith. Indeed, Russia’s unique blend of soft and hard power, something that has been referred to, by certain scholarly cliques as sharp power is onerously dependent on the presence of the erstwhile Soviet nuclear arsenal, that has been bequeathed unto the Russian Federation.
The sordid effect of the economic sanctions is visible and it goes without say, that there is the development of a certain angst amongst the Russian masses regarding Putin’s authoritarianism and autocratic mode of government. The oligarchy with its leanings towards Putin finds itself stretched thin, following the tedious sanctions that they have accrued, from the UK and the USA, in particular. Thus, one must indeed conclude that Russia is stretched thin, at this point of time. Another important facet to the discourse, is the Western responsibility towards Ukraine; it does not simply serve nominally as the buffer between the European mainland and Russia, it also serves as a conduit for energy transfers. Moreover, it must also be noted that Ukraine had given up its nuclear weapons on the assurance that it shall not be facing any such nuclear threat and if, in any case, a threat arises, then it shall be provided the requisite support. At present, this assurance shall be put to the test, and the question of national interests become more pertinent.
The Russian accusations against the Neo-Nazi elements in Ukraine are indicative of the sentiments of the Great Patriotic War (1941-45), viz the Second World War, but are indeed true. The Azov Regiment continues to be a long-standing blemish upon the Ukrainian Government’s and especially Zelensky’s track record. With the added element of US support, this further complicates the Ukrainian Nationalist Discourse. The tautological Russian Civilizational discourse that holds Kyiv to be Russian adds on to the complications; these impediments that are garnered, complement the crisis, further escalating it. At this current juncture, two P-5 members of the UN Security Council, who also happen to own the largest nuclear arsenals are in a standoff in the Ukraine crisis. President Putin’s State of the Nation address stands as an open rebuke towards escalation, as one can comprehend from the statements provided:
In fact, the anti-Russia project is part of the revanchist policy towards our country to create flashpoints of instability and conflicts next to our borders. Back then, in the 1930s, and now the design remains the same and it is to direct aggression to the East, to spark a war in Europe, and to eliminate competitors by using a proxy force.
We are not at war with the people of Ukraine. I have made that clear many times. The people of Ukraine have become hostages of the Kiev regime and its Western handlers, who have in fact occupied that country in the political, military and economic sense and have been destroying Ukrainian industry for decades now as they plundered its natural resources… Responsibility for inciting and escalating the Ukraine conflict as well as the sheer number of casualties lies entirely with the Western elites and, of course, today’s Kiev regime, for which the Ukrainian people are, in fact, not its own people. The current Ukrainian regime is serving not national interests (sic.), but the interests of third countries…
The West is using Ukraine as a battering ram against Russia and as a testing range. I am not going to discuss in detail the West’s attempts to turn the war around, or their plans to ramp up military supplies, since everyone is well aware of that… The Western elite make no secret of their goal, which is, I quote, “Russia’s strategic defeat.” What does this mean to us? This means they plan to finish us once and for all… In (sic.) this regard, I am compelled to announce today that Russia is suspending its membership in the New START Treaty. To reiterate, we are not withdrawing from the Treaty, but rather suspending our participation.
It is from such a speech, President Putin clearly establishes his tsarist stance and does not obfuscate his clear portrayal of Tsar Peter I. However, as Galeotti points out, this could soon turn out to be his last dictum as Tsar Nicholas II. Only time will tell, where the waters shall roll, but as of now, a longue durée understanding of Russian ‘defensive warfare strategy’ has shown that the people have always claimed the head of the politician. Perhaps, that is the irony of a Clausewitzian curse, a real Faustian bargain, one that does not end the way, Goethe ends his protagonist’s saga, but ends in a cold and swift manner.
Raunak Bhattacharjee is an Adjunct Researcher at Asia in Global Affairs, Kolkata, India.He is an Honours Graduate in Political Science from Presidency University, Kolkata, West Bengal, India. His interests lay in International Relations, Area Studies and Maritime Naval Security Studies with particular emphasis upon the Indian Ocean Region, and he is a neo-realist. His favourite realist scholars include John J Mearsheimer and Graham Allison. He is also interested in the Frankfurt School of Thought, Gramscian Studies and Postmodern School of Thought. He is an avid bibliophile and loves quizzes. He has been associated with Asia in Global Affairs from 2019 as an intern, and under the able guidance of the mentors, he has published 10 original papers and participated in more than 10 webinars as a paper presenter, winning due laurels and very often, being the youngest participant.He has also focused precisely upon the application of psycho-analytic theories in International Relations, trying to decode Role Conception, and to comprehend behaviour of the actors in the arena of global politics. He has written extensively on American political behaviour in the contemporary times, and is currently contemplating a possible solution to the Thucydides’ Trap using the balancing variables of India and the European Union. He is focusing his research upon Multipolarities arising across the globe, and concocting a longue durée approach of the same, to understand the comprehend the phenomenological aspect of the same in its brevity.
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